$US rebounded over this hour, but I’m not yet treating it as confirmation that the preceding pullback is over. Between 12:00 and 13:00 Beijing time, the USUSDT perpetual rose 6.17%, trading volume fell 22.48% from the previous hour, and open interest fell another 3.55%. The price recovery coincided with contract positions being closed. The rebound is real, but it has yet to be confirmed as driven by new positions.
Here, US refers to Talus Network. In a full scan at 13:07 of 523 Binance USDT-margined perpetual contracts that met the criteria, it ranked second with a 24-hour gain of 60.32% and trading volume of about 727 million USDT. This longer window still reflects the earlier rise and cannot substitute for the latest hour’s direction.
The previous article covered 11:00–12:00: price fell 12.54%, from a close of 0.030130 to 0.026353, with a low of 0.026000, trading volume of 36.4543 million USDT, and a 2.81% decline in open interest. The latest completed hourly candle means the short-term description of “the close continuing to move lower” needs updating, and the earlier cautious assessment must also be tested against the rebound.
From 12:00 to 13:00, the price opened at 0.026366 and closed at 0.027994, with an intrahour low of 0.025902 and a high of 0.029200. The low first slipped below the previous hour’s 0.026000, but the close returned above it, indicating a recovery after the dip. However, it still did not close above the 0.028010 level highlighted in the previous article, nor did it reclaim the higher 0.030879 level. A recovery from the low and a restoration of the broader structure are two separate things to monitor.
Trading volume in the latest hour was 28.2609 million USDT, less than during the hour of the pullback. Aggressive-buy volume was about 14.5405 million USDT, or 51.45%, up from 49.52% in the previous hour. The improved proportion of buy-side executions matters, but the absolute amount of aggressive buying actually declined. We cannot conclude that buying has broadly strengthened just because the proportion increased, much less describe trading volume as net inflows.
Open interest stood at 844.6 million US at 12:00 and fell to 814.7 million at 13:00, continuing its decline. A rise in price alongside falling open interest is consistent with scenarios such as short positions being closed or positions being reduced. Without evidence on liquidations or account positioning, we cannot directly characterize this as a short squeeze. At the very least, it cautions me that this rebound candle is not enough to prove that sustained new positions are stepping in.
The latest completed four-hour period is still 08:00–12:00, down 18.90% on trading volume of 100.45 million USDT. Only one hour has elapsed from 12:00 to 13:00, so I won’t treat the still-open 12:00–16:00 period as a new four-hour trend. The funding rate settled at 12:00 was positive 0.009221%, meaning longs paid for that settlement; this does not allow us to infer the next funding rate or subsequent price action.
In this review, I checked Talus’s official blog and Binance’s contract announcements again. They confirmed the identity of the trading pair, but I found no new fundamental catalyst that could independently explain this hourly rebound. Earlier mainnet and product developments serve only as background; a price rebound does not automatically prove that business demand is growing.
I’ll use 0.025902 as the downside level to watch for this completed hourly candle. On the upside, I’ll first watch to see whether price can hold above 0.028010 on a closing basis, then assess the quality of any recovery toward 0.029200. If a completed candle closes lower and loses the low again, the case for a recovery will weaken. If price stabilizes and trading volume and open interest also improve over the same period, there will be stronger grounds to revise my view on whether the move can continue.
Here, US refers to Talus Network. In a full scan at 13:07 of 523 Binance USDT-margined perpetual contracts that met the criteria, it ranked second with a 24-hour gain of 60.32% and trading volume of about 727 million USDT. This longer window still reflects the earlier rise and cannot substitute for the latest hour’s direction.
The previous article covered 11:00–12:00: price fell 12.54%, from a close of 0.030130 to 0.026353, with a low of 0.026000, trading volume of 36.4543 million USDT, and a 2.81% decline in open interest. The latest completed hourly candle means the short-term description of “the close continuing to move lower” needs updating, and the earlier cautious assessment must also be tested against the rebound.
From 12:00 to 13:00, the price opened at 0.026366 and closed at 0.027994, with an intrahour low of 0.025902 and a high of 0.029200. The low first slipped below the previous hour’s 0.026000, but the close returned above it, indicating a recovery after the dip. However, it still did not close above the 0.028010 level highlighted in the previous article, nor did it reclaim the higher 0.030879 level. A recovery from the low and a restoration of the broader structure are two separate things to monitor.
Trading volume in the latest hour was 28.2609 million USDT, less than during the hour of the pullback. Aggressive-buy volume was about 14.5405 million USDT, or 51.45%, up from 49.52% in the previous hour. The improved proportion of buy-side executions matters, but the absolute amount of aggressive buying actually declined. We cannot conclude that buying has broadly strengthened just because the proportion increased, much less describe trading volume as net inflows.
Open interest stood at 844.6 million US at 12:00 and fell to 814.7 million at 13:00, continuing its decline. A rise in price alongside falling open interest is consistent with scenarios such as short positions being closed or positions being reduced. Without evidence on liquidations or account positioning, we cannot directly characterize this as a short squeeze. At the very least, it cautions me that this rebound candle is not enough to prove that sustained new positions are stepping in.
The latest completed four-hour period is still 08:00–12:00, down 18.90% on trading volume of 100.45 million USDT. Only one hour has elapsed from 12:00 to 13:00, so I won’t treat the still-open 12:00–16:00 period as a new four-hour trend. The funding rate settled at 12:00 was positive 0.009221%, meaning longs paid for that settlement; this does not allow us to infer the next funding rate or subsequent price action.
In this review, I checked Talus’s official blog and Binance’s contract announcements again. They confirmed the identity of the trading pair, but I found no new fundamental catalyst that could independently explain this hourly rebound. Earlier mainnet and product developments serve only as background; a price rebound does not automatically prove that business demand is growing.
I’ll use 0.025902 as the downside level to watch for this completed hourly candle. On the upside, I’ll first watch to see whether price can hold above 0.028010 on a closing basis, then assess the quality of any recovery toward 0.029200. If a completed candle closes lower and loses the low again, the case for a recovery will weaken. If price stabilizes and trading volume and open interest also improve over the same period, there will be stronger grounds to revise my view on whether the move can continue.