There are fewer and fewer $ETH coins sitting on exchanges.

I came across this data and did a double take, then thought it made sense.

The $ETH balance on exchanges is now relatively low compared with the past few years.

Put simply, fewer people are willing to keep their coins on exchanges, ready to sell at any moment.

There are two sides to this.

The good news is that there are fewer coins available to dump, so supply is tightening.

But don't rush to call for a huge rally.

A low balance doesn't mean the price will rise right away. People may have moved their coins into staking or cold wallets.

What really matters is whether the price follows through from here.

If $ETH goes up while exchange balances keep falling, that would mean coins are genuinely being locked up.

If the price doesn't move, even a low balance won't help.

I'm cautiously optimistic, but I'm not chasing it.

I'll wait for it to make the first move.