Why next week’s U.S. CPI report matters so much: Will the Fed skip a rate hike in October?
At 8:30 p.m. on October 14, everyone in crypto needs to keep an eye on Washington 点击进入策略聊天室
The U.S. September CPI report is due out, and it will largely set the tone for the Fed’s October 27 rate meeting. Markets are currently pricing in an over 80% chance of no rate hike in October and about a 64% chance of a hike in December.
BTC is stuck around $82,000. It bounced this week from $81,300, liquidating $56 million in short positions. But honestly, this rally doesn’t look all that convincing.
Wintermute’s report puts it plainly: whether Bitcoin can rise from here depends mainly on how Treasuries and stocks perform—not on crypto’s own narratives. The 10-year Treasury yield is now above 5.2%, and the 30-year yield is at 5.6%, both at their highest levels since 2008. In this environment, highly leveraged assets are under immense pressure.
So next Wednesday, don’t focus only on headline CPI. Gasoline prices rose quite a bit in September, so the headline figure will probably look ugly, and markets are already prepared for that. The key figure to watch is month-over-month core CPI.
Barclays and Morgan Stanley both expect 0.24%, slightly below August’s 0.29%. Don’t underestimate the significance of that 0.05-percentage-point difference.
If core CPI comes in around 0.2%, a rate hold in October is all but certain, and BTC’s $82,500 support should hold more firmly. But if it’s still 0.3% or higher, Goldman Sachs has already revised its forecast from “one hike in December” to “possibly two hikes.” Treasury yields would keep climbing, and whether BTC can hold $82,000 would be an open question.
Put simply, next Wednesday night, what you need to watch isn’t “Is inflation high?” but “How high does it have to get before the Fed can’t sit still?”
80.6% are betting on no move in October, while 19.4% are betting on a hike that month. The gap between those two numbers is where next Wednesday night’s volatility lies. Set your alarm for 8:30 p.m. #STRK24小时上涨约20%
At 8:30 p.m. on October 14, everyone in crypto needs to keep an eye on Washington 点击进入策略聊天室
The U.S. September CPI report is due out, and it will largely set the tone for the Fed’s October 27 rate meeting. Markets are currently pricing in an over 80% chance of no rate hike in October and about a 64% chance of a hike in December.
BTC is stuck around $82,000. It bounced this week from $81,300, liquidating $56 million in short positions. But honestly, this rally doesn’t look all that convincing.
Wintermute’s report puts it plainly: whether Bitcoin can rise from here depends mainly on how Treasuries and stocks perform—not on crypto’s own narratives. The 10-year Treasury yield is now above 5.2%, and the 30-year yield is at 5.6%, both at their highest levels since 2008. In this environment, highly leveraged assets are under immense pressure.
So next Wednesday, don’t focus only on headline CPI. Gasoline prices rose quite a bit in September, so the headline figure will probably look ugly, and markets are already prepared for that. The key figure to watch is month-over-month core CPI.
Barclays and Morgan Stanley both expect 0.24%, slightly below August’s 0.29%. Don’t underestimate the significance of that 0.05-percentage-point difference.
If core CPI comes in around 0.2%, a rate hold in October is all but certain, and BTC’s $82,500 support should hold more firmly. But if it’s still 0.3% or higher, Goldman Sachs has already revised its forecast from “one hike in December” to “possibly two hikes.” Treasury yields would keep climbing, and whether BTC can hold $82,000 would be an open question.
Put simply, next Wednesday night, what you need to watch isn’t “Is inflation high?” but “How high does it have to get before the Fed can’t sit still?”
80.6% are betting on no move in October, while 19.4% are betting on a hike that month. The gap between those two numbers is where next Wednesday night’s volatility lies. Set your alarm for 8:30 p.m. #STRK24小时上涨约20%