Retail investors have sold 93,000 BTC this year. You should know who’s buying them up.
Here’s a statistic that might surprise you.
By early October this year, corporate entities had bought a net 193,000 bitcoins. Over the same period, individual investors sold a net 93,000, while miners sold more than 30,000. Put simply, coins are gradually moving out of retail investors’ hands and into the hands of people who have no intention of selling anytime soon.
Now look at the market: BTC is around $82,600. Over the past month, it dipped as low as $75,400 and climbed as high as $87,100. It’s been swinging back and forth in a range more than $10,000 wide, leaving many people repeatedly wrong-footed—chasing rallies and selling the dips.
ETFs haven’t looked great this week either. They saw $485 million in outflows on Wednesday, followed by another $244 million on Thursday. By Friday, flows were basically flat, with only about $1 million in outflows. The outflows are easing, and that detail matters more than the outflows themselves.
Yesterday, Trump’s comments on Iran gave the market some relief. Oil prices and Treasury yields both fell, and BTC climbed back above $82,000. The weight hanging over risk assets has lifted a little.
Funding rates in the futures market are very low, and the long-to-short ratio is almost 1:1. No one is especially excited, and leverage isn’t crowded. This kind of calm often comes before the market picks a direction. The Fear and Greed Index has fallen from 74 a few days ago to 63. Sentiment has cooled, but we’re still far from panic.
My thinking is simple: $75,000–$76,000 has held up as a floor this month, and $87,000 is the ceiling. We’re now in the lower half of the range, so the risk-reward looks better for bulls. If BTC holds above $84,000, I’ll add to my position. If it falls below $80,000, I’ll cut some exposure rather than stubbornly hold on. Don’t go all-in in the middle of the range, and don’t hand over your coins just because no one else is bullish.
Institutions are making money with patience. Retail investors are losing money to emotion. Which side are you on?
Here’s a statistic that might surprise you.
By early October this year, corporate entities had bought a net 193,000 bitcoins. Over the same period, individual investors sold a net 93,000, while miners sold more than 30,000. Put simply, coins are gradually moving out of retail investors’ hands and into the hands of people who have no intention of selling anytime soon.
Now look at the market: BTC is around $82,600. Over the past month, it dipped as low as $75,400 and climbed as high as $87,100. It’s been swinging back and forth in a range more than $10,000 wide, leaving many people repeatedly wrong-footed—chasing rallies and selling the dips.
ETFs haven’t looked great this week either. They saw $485 million in outflows on Wednesday, followed by another $244 million on Thursday. By Friday, flows were basically flat, with only about $1 million in outflows. The outflows are easing, and that detail matters more than the outflows themselves.
Yesterday, Trump’s comments on Iran gave the market some relief. Oil prices and Treasury yields both fell, and BTC climbed back above $82,000. The weight hanging over risk assets has lifted a little.
Funding rates in the futures market are very low, and the long-to-short ratio is almost 1:1. No one is especially excited, and leverage isn’t crowded. This kind of calm often comes before the market picks a direction. The Fear and Greed Index has fallen from 74 a few days ago to 63. Sentiment has cooled, but we’re still far from panic.
My thinking is simple: $75,000–$76,000 has held up as a floor this month, and $87,000 is the ceiling. We’re now in the lower half of the range, so the risk-reward looks better for bulls. If BTC holds above $84,000, I’ll add to my position. If it falls below $80,000, I’ll cut some exposure rather than stubbornly hold on. Don’t go all-in in the middle of the range, and don’t hand over your coins just because no one else is bullish.
Institutions are making money with patience. Retail investors are losing money to emotion. Which side are you on?