BTC closed out its fourth consecutive positive September. Binance accounted for a growing share of Bitcoin spot activity during the rally
Binance, the world’s largest global digital asset platform by trading volume and number of users, shared a new analysis from Binance Research on the state of the crypto market. The report reviews Bitcoin’s seasonality, signals from the current cycle, and the factors behind the recent rally.
Bitcoin breaks September’s “curse”
Bitcoin rose 6.4% in September, its second-best September since 2017. After six consecutive September declines between 2017 and 2022, September has now closed in positive territory for four consecutive years.
Attention is now turning to October, historically Bitcoin’s strongest month: according to the analysis, it closed with gains in seven of the past nine years.
Bitcoin rose 6.4% in September, its second-best September since 2017
The market is beginning to recover
According to Binance Research, the previous three complete bear market cycles bottomed between 11 and 13 months after their peaks, averaging 12.3 months. The current cycle is 11.8 months from its peak, and the total crypto market capitalization has already recovered around 42% from its July 1 low.
Today, total crypto market capitalization is around $2.89 trillion, near the lower end of its historical trend-adjusted range. The report notes that patterns from previous cycles do not guarantee when a recovery will occur.
The three bear market cycles bottomed between 11 and 13 months after their peaks
Real-world asset tokenization: a driver of the next cycle
The analysis suggests that each crypto market cycle has been defined by a dominant theme: digital money, smart chains, decentralized finance applications and, most recently, expanded access through ETFs. According to Binance Research, the next cycle could be driven by the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), expanding what crypto infrastructure can trade, finance and use as collateral.
The data supports this thesis: the value of tokenized real-world assets reached $38.6 billion, up 51.4% from the end of 2025, when it stood at $25.5 billion.
The next cycle could be driven by the tokenization of real-world assets
Rally activity was concentrated on Binance
During Bitcoin’s recent rally, Binance’s share of BTC spot trading volume rose from 25% to more than 30%, peaking above 40%. Among the top five exchanges, Binance’s daily volume exceeded $5 billion in late August and approached $4 billion in mid-September—about $3 billion more than the next-largest exchange on both occasions.
Binance also maintained the market’s deepest BTC spot order book throughout the rally, with 2% depth consistently exceeding $240 million.
Binance’s daily volume exceeded $5 billion in late August
Binance’s share of BTC spot trading rose from 25% to more than 30%
Binance Research’s analysis is based on data from CoinMarketCap, RWA.xyz and Glassnode, as of September 30 and October 2, 2026. References to previous cycles are historical and do not guarantee future results. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
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