On Friday, the CFTC issued two documents in quick succession, drawing a somewhat sharper line between prediction markets and sportsbooks.

1️⃣ Interim Final Rule: Casino-style gambling—including sportsbook betting and casino games—is explicitly excluded from the definition of “swap.” Selig’s words were roughly: casino products are not derivatives. The rule takes effect immediately upon publication in the Federal Register, followed by a 30-day comment period.

2️⃣ The other is a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: It proposes explicitly including event contracts (contracts on sporting, political, cultural, and weather-related events) in the definition of “swap,” placing them under the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction. This is still a proposal; it must await a final rule and does not take effect tonight. The comment period is also 30 days, starting from publication in the Federal Register.

Put plainly: for state-regulated sportsbooks and casinos, the federal derivatives regulator says, “That’s not my jurisdiction”; for event contracts like Kalshi and Polymarket, it’s pushing the view that they’re “swaps.” CoinDesk also noted that this is tied to the backdrop of multiple states suing the CFTC and ongoing courtroom battles. Whether the rules hold up is another question.

Don’t confuse this with the other track: Blockchain.com is applying for DCM+FCM licenses; this time, the regulator itself is changing the definition. An application isn’t approval, and a proposal isn’t final.

Tracking only: the primary sources are CFTC website items 9309-26 / 9310-26. Follow the Federal Register publication date, the final rule text, and what the courts decide.

This is not investment advice.