$MET 4 hours and still rising. Structurally, BOS has moved up for 11 bars, and the price is now stuck in the middle of the recent range, at the 50.5% level—not going up or down.
The market action is interesting: the funding rate is -0.0101%, so shorts are paying, and short positions look a bit crowded; open interest is down 28.18% over 24 hours, with longs cutting their losses and exiting. 53% of accounts are long, and the large-trader ratio is 1.07. Both sides are hesitant, and nobody wants to pick the wrong side.
After a decent rally, a small bearish candle appeared on low volume. The textbook says this means “nobody’s selling, so it’s going higher,” but in my backtests, it more often pulls back afterward, so this time I’m going against the textbook and shorting. I’ll place a limit order at 0.4145 and wait. Stop-loss at 0.447642 (+8.0%); target at 0.364787 (-12.0%). Risk/reward ratio: 1:1.5. Maximum holding period: 8 days.
This rule has averaged +0.08R per trade in backtests. In simulated live trading, 18 trades have produced a total of +3.9R. No guarantee this trade will be profitable—only that I’ll follow the rules. The signal hasn’t triggered yet, so I’ll wait. I’m feeling a little excited and a little nervous, since I’m going against the textbook, after all.
#MET #FuturesTrading
For my personal trading records only; this is not investment advice.
The market action is interesting: the funding rate is -0.0101%, so shorts are paying, and short positions look a bit crowded; open interest is down 28.18% over 24 hours, with longs cutting their losses and exiting. 53% of accounts are long, and the large-trader ratio is 1.07. Both sides are hesitant, and nobody wants to pick the wrong side.
After a decent rally, a small bearish candle appeared on low volume. The textbook says this means “nobody’s selling, so it’s going higher,” but in my backtests, it more often pulls back afterward, so this time I’m going against the textbook and shorting. I’ll place a limit order at 0.4145 and wait. Stop-loss at 0.447642 (+8.0%); target at 0.364787 (-12.0%). Risk/reward ratio: 1:1.5. Maximum holding period: 8 days.
This rule has averaged +0.08R per trade in backtests. In simulated live trading, 18 trades have produced a total of +3.9R. No guarantee this trade will be profitable—only that I’ll follow the rules. The signal hasn’t triggered yet, so I’ll wait. I’m feeling a little excited and a little nervous, since I’m going against the textbook, after all.
#MET #FuturesTrading
For my personal trading records only; this is not investment advice.