It’s the first anniversary of 10/11. It’s not just retail investors who are worried, but institutions too.
On October 9, Bitcoin was hovering around $82,900.
Yesterday, it briefly fell to $80,300. Today’s low is $81,600.
Then it was bought back again.
But from the September 22 peak, it’s still down 5.1%.
And now, October 11 is just two days away.
This day last year was the darkest day in crypto.
So a lot of people are asking the same question: could it happen again?
The market has two clear targets: $75,000 on the way down, and $90,000 on the way up.
Let’s first set the record straight about what happened that day last year.
On October 6 last year, Binance perpetuals hit a high of $126,200. A year later, the price is still 34% below that level.
That was the high for this move.
Four days later, on October 10, that same daily candle opened at $121,600.
The intraday low hit $101,500.
It closed at $112,700.
Within a single day, the high and low were nearly 20% apart.
Coinglass recorded $19 billion in liquidations. 1.64 million people were wiped out, most of them longs.
The trigger was the 100% tariffs announced that day.
But the calendar itself doesn’t create a market move. Leverage does.
But leverage looks completely different this year.
Over the past day, $73.73 million in long positions were liquidated on Binance perpetuals.
Shorts accounted for $62.59 million. The two sides were almost evenly matched.
Narrow the window to twelve hours, and the direction reverses: $36.59 million in shorts were liquidated, compared with just $8.65 million in longs.
In today’s rebound, shorts were the first to get burned.
Over the past four hours, the picture has flipped again: $4.86 million in longs were liquidated, compared with just $870,000 in shorts.
So this wasn’t a one-sided washout. Both sides took hits in turn.
Total market open interest is $52.67 billion, down more than 2% in a day.
The funding rate is 0.0015%, practically zero.
Leverage is coming off, not going on. No one dares to add back here yet.
That same week, the threat also took on a different name.
Last year, the risk that week was tariffs. This year, the risk this week is energy.
First, the $75,000 level: from where we are now, it would take a 9.6% drop to get there.
But $75,000 itself isn’t a crash level.
I pulled daily data for the past 300 trading days on Binance perpetuals. It closed below this level on 158 of those days.
For more than half of the past year, the price was below that level.
So if it goes back there, what breaks is the rally since August, not the long-term trend.
Because further down, the moving averages are still much lower.
The 50-day moving average is at $80,500.
The 100-day moving average is at $72,300, and the 200-day moving average is at $71,800.
The price is still 15% above the latter.
So even if it returns to that level, the long-term structure will still be intact.
As for the $90,000 level, it would take an 8.5% rise from here to reach it. What stands in the way isn’t a round-number threshold, but two failed attempts.
The high on September 22 was $87,400; on October 2, it was $87,200.
Both times, it climbed above $87,000 and then fell back.
And the layer overhead is very thin now.
On the one-hour liquidation heatmap, the two nearest bands are between $83,200 and $83,600.
Neither band is particularly thick.
The real thick wall is higher up: the three bands between $87,000 and $87,600, each with more than $200 million in orders.
And the $83,200–$83,400 band has lost 97% of its strength over the past day.
In other words, the previous drop already wiped out the thin layer of leverage overhead.
Now look at where the money is coming from. That’s what’s changed over the past two days.
In the first four trading days of October, U.S. spot ETFs saw net inflows of $321.5 million.
BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $545.7 million in inflows, while all the other funds combined had net outflows of $224.2 million.
Then came October 7, with net outflows of $484.9 million in a single day.
That was the biggest day in more than three months.
IBIT alone saw $207.7 million in outflows.
On October 8, outflows continued at $244.1 million.
A combined $729 million flowed out over the two days.
And so October flipped from net inflows to net outflows of $407.4 million.
It’s not that money isn’t coming in; it’s coming in more slowly than it’s leaving. And this time, even the biggest player has turned around.
There’s another number that goes against expectations.
The Fear & Greed Index has fallen from 73 on October 6 to 59 today.
So this isn’t panic. It’s just giving back the greed. True bottom sentiment doesn’t look like this.
So I’m not going to give you a direction. I’ll give you three numbers you can watch for yourself.
The first is the nearest wall overhead.
The second is the ETF data for October 9.
If there are still outflows on the third day, October’s net outflows will grow further.
The third is funding rates and open interest.
It’s only when both rise together that it signals leverage is coming back in.
Only then would October 11 be worth worrying about. Not yet.
The word “crossroads” describes the price.
But what determines your account has never been which side of the price you're on.
Those 1.64 million people who were wiped out a year ago weren’t wrong about the direction.
They just happened to still be leveraged on the wrong day.
So October 11 isn’t a market driver.
Your leverage is.
—MK Keeps His Promises
