The recovery in $ETH left another full hour’s close above the level, but trading volume continued to contract. I’ll keep waiting for confirmation of a breakout. Compared with the previous update, both the low and high moved higher, and price made modest progress; at the same time, trading volume fell by roughly another quarter, and the share of aggressive buying also declined. This leaves me with the view that there is some local buying support, but I won’t yet upgrade that to a sustained strengthening trend.
In the previous update, the 23:00–24:00 candle closed at 2489.03, just above 2489, with a high of 2494.50 and a low of 2485. The range of the contest narrowed. Now, from 00:00 to 01:00 Beijing time on October 10, the price opened at 2489.02, reached a high of 2499.14 and a low of 2486.97, and closed at 2491.47, up about 0.10% for the hour. The close remained above 2487.57–2489, and the low also moved higher than in the previous hour, giving the recovery from below another supportive close.
However, the low of 2486.97 still dipped below the observation range, so the fact that the candle closed above it does not mean the price never broke below it during the hour. The new high of 2499.14 exceeded the previous 2494.50, so the test did extend higher, but it still did not reach 2500; the full-hour close at 2491.47 also did not hold above 2494.50. So there is still a gap between the improved upward test and confirmation of a breakout. A move above the 2500 round number cannot yet be treated as evidence that price has held above it.
Volume fell from 18.9479 million USDT in the previous hour to 14.0555 million, a decrease of about 25.8%. Aggressive buying volume was about 7.1418 million, or 50.8%, compared with about 53.0% previously. Price edged up as trading volume continued to fall, while the share of aggressive buying also declined. Buyers did not use greater volume to push price to a higher close. This local recovery is worth continuing to monitor, but a higher low alone is not enough to confirm a new acceleration.
A rise on declining volume could reflect a temporary reduction in selling, or a slowdown in participation from both sides. Spot candles do not identify the buyers, and the aggressive-trade ratio is not the same as net inflows; it certainly does not establish that institutions have been accumulating continuously. I would rather assess how much price progress the volume produces over a window of the same length, so that relative changes in the figures do not distract from the eventual closing price.
Volume declined in both consecutive hours, but this hour shifted from a slight drop to a slight rise, with both the high and low moving up. That is more favorable than the previous update. The other side of the picture is that the high remained below 2500, and the close was only 2.44 above the previous hour’s close. Both sets of evidence need to be kept in view: there is slightly more support for continued buying below, but participation in further upside has yet to recover.
Compared with the previous update, the new developments are a higher high, from 2494.50 to 2499.14; a higher low, from 2485 to 2486.97; a full-hour close back at 2491.47; and a further 25.8% drop in volume. This tests the conditions I was already waiting for; it does not turn a small bullish candle into proof that the previous update accurately predicted a rise. The data is for Binance ETHUSDT spot, with prices in USDT. The hour after 01:00 is not yet complete.
Next, I’ll first watch whether full-hour closes can continue to hold above 2487.57–2489, then whether volume and upward price progress improve together when price breaks through 2499.14–2500. If price tests 2503.08–2503.90, it will also need to close above that area. If it first loses 2486.97 and then retreats to 2485 and 2478.30, the basis for the local recovery will weaken. For now, I’ll continue to wait for confirmation from both price and participation.
In the previous update, the 23:00–24:00 candle closed at 2489.03, just above 2489, with a high of 2494.50 and a low of 2485. The range of the contest narrowed. Now, from 00:00 to 01:00 Beijing time on October 10, the price opened at 2489.02, reached a high of 2499.14 and a low of 2486.97, and closed at 2491.47, up about 0.10% for the hour. The close remained above 2487.57–2489, and the low also moved higher than in the previous hour, giving the recovery from below another supportive close.
However, the low of 2486.97 still dipped below the observation range, so the fact that the candle closed above it does not mean the price never broke below it during the hour. The new high of 2499.14 exceeded the previous 2494.50, so the test did extend higher, but it still did not reach 2500; the full-hour close at 2491.47 also did not hold above 2494.50. So there is still a gap between the improved upward test and confirmation of a breakout. A move above the 2500 round number cannot yet be treated as evidence that price has held above it.
Volume fell from 18.9479 million USDT in the previous hour to 14.0555 million, a decrease of about 25.8%. Aggressive buying volume was about 7.1418 million, or 50.8%, compared with about 53.0% previously. Price edged up as trading volume continued to fall, while the share of aggressive buying also declined. Buyers did not use greater volume to push price to a higher close. This local recovery is worth continuing to monitor, but a higher low alone is not enough to confirm a new acceleration.
A rise on declining volume could reflect a temporary reduction in selling, or a slowdown in participation from both sides. Spot candles do not identify the buyers, and the aggressive-trade ratio is not the same as net inflows; it certainly does not establish that institutions have been accumulating continuously. I would rather assess how much price progress the volume produces over a window of the same length, so that relative changes in the figures do not distract from the eventual closing price.
Volume declined in both consecutive hours, but this hour shifted from a slight drop to a slight rise, with both the high and low moving up. That is more favorable than the previous update. The other side of the picture is that the high remained below 2500, and the close was only 2.44 above the previous hour’s close. Both sets of evidence need to be kept in view: there is slightly more support for continued buying below, but participation in further upside has yet to recover.
Compared with the previous update, the new developments are a higher high, from 2494.50 to 2499.14; a higher low, from 2485 to 2486.97; a full-hour close back at 2491.47; and a further 25.8% drop in volume. This tests the conditions I was already waiting for; it does not turn a small bullish candle into proof that the previous update accurately predicted a rise. The data is for Binance ETHUSDT spot, with prices in USDT. The hour after 01:00 is not yet complete.
Next, I’ll first watch whether full-hour closes can continue to hold above 2487.57–2489, then whether volume and upward price progress improve together when price breaks through 2499.14–2500. If price tests 2503.08–2503.90, it will also need to close above that area. If it first loses 2486.97 and then retreats to 2485 and 2478.30, the basis for the local recovery will weaken. For now, I’ll continue to wait for confirmation from both price and participation.