$ORCL up ~5% to $142 this morning — erasing Thursday's dump. The OpenAI revenue scare is looking more like an accounting quirk (how they count partner sales) than real demand drying up. New Mexico data center still on track, and a director just dropped $3.5M near $139. That's a signal.
Bounce makes sense, but I'm not chasing here. The structural issues are still live: massive capex burn, negative free cash flow, heavy debt load tied to one whale customer. I'm watching whether $ORCL and the AI crew like $NVDA hold into the close, then what $TSM says Oct 15. That'll tell us if this bounce has legs or if it's just short covering before the next leg down.
No entry yet. Waiting for confirmation that the risk is actually mispriced, not just a relief rally.
Bounce makes sense, but I'm not chasing here. The structural issues are still live: massive capex burn, negative free cash flow, heavy debt load tied to one whale customer. I'm watching whether $ORCL and the AI crew like $NVDA hold into the close, then what $TSM says Oct 15. That'll tell us if this bounce has legs or if it's just short covering before the next leg down.
No entry yet. Waiting for confirmation that the risk is actually mispriced, not just a relief rally.