$RLC: Back to the breakout starting point—time to revise the outlook
Yesterday afternoon’s rally pushed the price above the watch zone mentioned in my previous post. My view depended on one condition: the pullback had to hold near 0.95. The market has now invalidated that condition.
From 23:00 to 00:00, Binance spot RLC fell nearly 16% in an hour. As of 00:22 Beijing time on October 10, it was trading at 0.8522, below the watch zone. The afternoon’s breakout gains have been given back, so it can no longer be viewed as “consolidation after a breakout.”
The easiest thing to misread here is the 24-hour gain of 13%: that does not mean the recent breakout is still valid. It only compares the current price with the price a day ago, and cannot replace an assessment of the most recent price action.
So I’m withdrawing my view that the breakout remains intact. Even if the price rebounds, we need to see whether it can regain and hold above 0.95–0.9584. If it can’t, that’s just a bounce after the breakdown—not enough to say the trend has recovered based on a single bullish candle.
I haven’t verified any new official explanation for the drop, so I’m only discussing what has already happened on the chart. Source: Binance spot candlesticks and market data, sampled at 00:22. #RLC #MarketAnalysis
Yesterday afternoon’s rally pushed the price above the watch zone mentioned in my previous post. My view depended on one condition: the pullback had to hold near 0.95. The market has now invalidated that condition.
From 23:00 to 00:00, Binance spot RLC fell nearly 16% in an hour. As of 00:22 Beijing time on October 10, it was trading at 0.8522, below the watch zone. The afternoon’s breakout gains have been given back, so it can no longer be viewed as “consolidation after a breakout.”
The easiest thing to misread here is the 24-hour gain of 13%: that does not mean the recent breakout is still valid. It only compares the current price with the price a day ago, and cannot replace an assessment of the most recent price action.
So I’m withdrawing my view that the breakout remains intact. Even if the price rebounds, we need to see whether it can regain and hold above 0.95–0.9584. If it can’t, that’s just a bounce after the breakdown—not enough to say the trend has recovered based on a single bullish candle.
I haven’t verified any new official explanation for the drop, so I’m only discussing what has already happened on the chart. Source: Binance spot candlesticks and market data, sampled at 00:22. #RLC #MarketAnalysis