BTC | It dipped to the doorstep of $80K, then got pulled back up. Is this a buying opportunity or catching a falling knife? 🤔
Honestly, Bitcoin’s price action this week has been a bit of a roller coaster 🎢
On October 4, it was still hovering around $86,500. Then came two straight red candles on the 7th and 8th, sending it all the way down to $80,393—just a hair above the big $80K mark.
But on the 9th, it bounced back. It’s now around $82,850, up 2.2% in 24 hours.
So who’s been dumping? Put simply: this time, the blame mostly lies outside crypto 👇
❌ ETFs are fleeing: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $485 million on October 7 (their biggest single-day outflow since June), followed by another roughly $244 million on the 8th. That wiped out the inflows from earlier in October.
❌ Treasury yields are through the roof: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to around 5.7%, its highest level since 2002. Who can hold up against that in risk assets?
❌ The Fed still wants to hike rates: Meeting minutes showed that most officials expect another rate hike before the end of the year.
❌ Oil prices + the Middle East: Ships have continued to come under attack in the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude briefly topped $100 a barrel.
But!!! The rebound didn’t come out of nowhere either 👇
✅ Trump said there would be no strike on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. Oil prices fell, and markets breathed a sigh of relief.
✅ Markets have priced the odds of an October rate hike down to around 20%, so a sudden hit in the short term seems less likely.
📍A few levels I’m watching:
Support: $80,400–$80,000 (this week’s low + the big round number—the line in the sand)
Resistance: First, $83,500. Above that, $85,500–$86,000; then around $87,000, this month’s high.
🎬Here’s how I see the next act playing out:
1️⃣ Hold above $83,500 → Likely to retest $85,500–$86,000, which could put the bears in a tough spot.
2️⃣ Chop around between $80K and $83.5K → Wait for the October 14 CPI to point the way. Don’t get carried away with big leverage in the meantime.
3️⃣ A decisive break below $80,000 → Don’t stubbornly hold on. The 30-day low is around $75,000, and I’m not trying to scare you.
My take: Choppy in the short term. I’m not chasing the rally; I’d only consider buying a small position near $80K. Don’t expect a major reversal until the macro picture eases up.
The signal I really want to see is ETFs starting to buy again 👀
⚠️Just my personal rambling—not investment advice.
$BTC
Honestly, Bitcoin’s price action this week has been a bit of a roller coaster 🎢
On October 4, it was still hovering around $86,500. Then came two straight red candles on the 7th and 8th, sending it all the way down to $80,393—just a hair above the big $80K mark.
But on the 9th, it bounced back. It’s now around $82,850, up 2.2% in 24 hours.
So who’s been dumping? Put simply: this time, the blame mostly lies outside crypto 👇
❌ ETFs are fleeing: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $485 million on October 7 (their biggest single-day outflow since June), followed by another roughly $244 million on the 8th. That wiped out the inflows from earlier in October.
❌ Treasury yields are through the roof: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to around 5.7%, its highest level since 2002. Who can hold up against that in risk assets?
❌ The Fed still wants to hike rates: Meeting minutes showed that most officials expect another rate hike before the end of the year.
❌ Oil prices + the Middle East: Ships have continued to come under attack in the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude briefly topped $100 a barrel.
But!!! The rebound didn’t come out of nowhere either 👇
✅ Trump said there would be no strike on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. Oil prices fell, and markets breathed a sigh of relief.
✅ Markets have priced the odds of an October rate hike down to around 20%, so a sudden hit in the short term seems less likely.
📍A few levels I’m watching:
Support: $80,400–$80,000 (this week’s low + the big round number—the line in the sand)
Resistance: First, $83,500. Above that, $85,500–$86,000; then around $87,000, this month’s high.
🎬Here’s how I see the next act playing out:
1️⃣ Hold above $83,500 → Likely to retest $85,500–$86,000, which could put the bears in a tough spot.
2️⃣ Chop around between $80K and $83.5K → Wait for the October 14 CPI to point the way. Don’t get carried away with big leverage in the meantime.
3️⃣ A decisive break below $80,000 → Don’t stubbornly hold on. The 30-day low is around $75,000, and I’m not trying to scare you.
My take: Choppy in the short term. I’m not chasing the rally; I’d only consider buying a small position near $80K. Don’t expect a major reversal until the macro picture eases up.
The signal I really want to see is ETFs starting to buy again 👀
⚠️Just my personal rambling—not investment advice.
$BTC