Support below $ETH showed some recovery, but the test of $2,500 still failed to produce a close above that level. I’ll retain a cautious view while acknowledging that the latest hour improved on the previous one: these two developments need to be considered separately.
In the previous hour, from 21:00 to 22:00, the low was 2476.87 and the close was 2484.37. Price fell below the prior 2487.57–2489 range and continued lower even as volume increased, further weakening the recovery outlook. In the latest hour, from 22:00 to 23:00 Beijing time, the open was 2484.35, the high 2503.08, the low 2478.30, and the close 2491.31, up about 0.28% for the hour. The low moved slightly higher, and the completed close returned above both 2487.57 and 2489. That gives us another instance of price reclaiming the lower range that was lost in the previous note.
I still wouldn’t say that $2,500 has been firmly reclaimed. The latest hour traded above the round number, but closed at just 2491.31. And compared with the previous hour’s high of 2503.90, the advance did not extend further. Both hourly candles touched above $2,500, yet both ultimately closed back below it, showing that the contest at this level has not produced a sustained advantage. The higher low offers support, while repeated failures at the round number limit its significance.
Volume was slightly lower than in the previous hour. From 22:00 to 23:00, it was about 28.7321 million USDT, versus about 30.7952 million in the prior hour, a decrease of approximately 6.7%. Taker buy volume was about 14.4802 million, or 50.4% of the total, improving from 47.1%. Buyers’ share of taker volume moving back above half as price recovered is a visible change. However, total volume did not expand alongside it, and the buying share’s advantage was modest, so this figure alone is not enough to conclude that demand is strong.
The taker-buy share describes the initiating side of trades in this spot trading pair; it does not identify institutions or the source of funds, nor does it equal net inflows. Slightly lower total volume alongside a modest price increase helps explain the pace of the recovery, but cannot on its own prove that selling pressure has dried up. More reliable confirmation still depends on subsequent completed closes: whether buyer participation can translate into price holding its gains, rather than repeatedly touching a level and retreating.
Compared with the previous note, the new developments are a higher low at 2478.30, a recovery close at 2491.31, and an improved taker-buy share. The earlier weakening in support below has been partly offset; the warning that the $2,500 test has failed, however, still stands. This is a local recovery, but the evidence is not yet strong enough for me to change the broader assessment to one of sustained strengthening.
The data covers a complete one-hour candle for Binance ETHUSDT spot, with prices in USDT. The hour after 23:00 is not yet complete, so intrahour quotes do not count as new confirmation. First, watch whether 2487.57–2489 can hold through a retest and produce a completed close above the range; then watch for renewed tests of 2493.28 and 2500–2503.90. Consecutive closes above 2500, supported by volume, would strengthen the recovery case. If price loses 2487.57 again, or even breaks below 2478.30 and 2476.87, the improvement in support below would need to be reconsidered. For now, the key is whether the recovery can continue—not drawing conclusions from a single intrahour touch of a round number.
In the previous hour, from 21:00 to 22:00, the low was 2476.87 and the close was 2484.37. Price fell below the prior 2487.57–2489 range and continued lower even as volume increased, further weakening the recovery outlook. In the latest hour, from 22:00 to 23:00 Beijing time, the open was 2484.35, the high 2503.08, the low 2478.30, and the close 2491.31, up about 0.28% for the hour. The low moved slightly higher, and the completed close returned above both 2487.57 and 2489. That gives us another instance of price reclaiming the lower range that was lost in the previous note.
I still wouldn’t say that $2,500 has been firmly reclaimed. The latest hour traded above the round number, but closed at just 2491.31. And compared with the previous hour’s high of 2503.90, the advance did not extend further. Both hourly candles touched above $2,500, yet both ultimately closed back below it, showing that the contest at this level has not produced a sustained advantage. The higher low offers support, while repeated failures at the round number limit its significance.
Volume was slightly lower than in the previous hour. From 22:00 to 23:00, it was about 28.7321 million USDT, versus about 30.7952 million in the prior hour, a decrease of approximately 6.7%. Taker buy volume was about 14.4802 million, or 50.4% of the total, improving from 47.1%. Buyers’ share of taker volume moving back above half as price recovered is a visible change. However, total volume did not expand alongside it, and the buying share’s advantage was modest, so this figure alone is not enough to conclude that demand is strong.
The taker-buy share describes the initiating side of trades in this spot trading pair; it does not identify institutions or the source of funds, nor does it equal net inflows. Slightly lower total volume alongside a modest price increase helps explain the pace of the recovery, but cannot on its own prove that selling pressure has dried up. More reliable confirmation still depends on subsequent completed closes: whether buyer participation can translate into price holding its gains, rather than repeatedly touching a level and retreating.
Compared with the previous note, the new developments are a higher low at 2478.30, a recovery close at 2491.31, and an improved taker-buy share. The earlier weakening in support below has been partly offset; the warning that the $2,500 test has failed, however, still stands. This is a local recovery, but the evidence is not yet strong enough for me to change the broader assessment to one of sustained strengthening.
The data covers a complete one-hour candle for Binance ETHUSDT spot, with prices in USDT. The hour after 23:00 is not yet complete, so intrahour quotes do not count as new confirmation. First, watch whether 2487.57–2489 can hold through a retest and produce a completed close above the range; then watch for renewed tests of 2493.28 and 2500–2503.90. Consecutive closes above 2500, supported by volume, would strengthen the recovery case. If price loses 2487.57 again, or even breaks below 2478.30 and 2476.87, the improvement in support below would need to be reconsidered. For now, the key is whether the recovery can continue—not drawing conclusions from a single intrahour touch of a round number.