$RLC It rose 40% in a day, and now it's fallen back to $1.
It's still falling over the past hour, down 4.2%.
Those who rushed in and chased the price yesterday probably won't sleep well tonight.
A quick bit of background for anyone unfamiliar with it.
RLC is iExec's token. The project rents out computing power: people with idle machines can list them for sale, and those who need computing power can buy it. The platform takes a cut in the middle.
It's an old project that usually flies under the radar.
When something this quiet suddenly goes wild, you should be extra cautious.
Here's how the chart looks.
In 24 hours, it shot from 0.7066 to 1.4887, then turned around.
It's now at 1.0002, giving back half of its gains.
Volume tells an even clearer story: the latest stretch saw only 52% of the volume of the previous one,
There were buyers chasing the rally, but no one stepped in on the pullback.
Resistance above at 1.4887, support below at 0.6463,
There are trapped holders all the way from $1 to 1.48, and people will be looking to sell at every bounce.
The derivatives picture is more nuanced.
Funding is negative 0.2266%—shorts are paying longs to hold their positions.
After the price fell, shorts piled in. That’s how the funding rate got here.
But liquidations over the past hour are at 0. Neither side has been hurt,
which suggests there isn’t much leverage in this move at all; it’s spot holders who are getting out.
I don’t have the open-interest change data, so I won’t make anything up.
The bulls have three things going for them.
It’s still up 40% over 24 hours. The trend isn’t dead.
With funding this deeply negative, shorts are crowded, so a short squeeze could happen at any time.
More than $52 million traded in a day—real money has come in.
The bears have stronger arguments.
It failed to hold above 1.4887, and it’s down 4.2% over the past hour.
Volume has shrunk to half of the previous stretch, and no one is lifting the bounce.
BTC is up just 0.48% over the past 24 hours. This coin is moving on its own, with no one supporting the price.
My call: I’m siding with the bears.
I’ll set my stop at 1.1973. If the price gets back above that level, I’ll admit I was wrong.
If it keeps falling, the first support to watch is 0.6463.
But I wouldn’t chase a short at this level right now,
the risk-reward isn’t good. I’d wait for a bounce to around 1.1973 before placing a short order.
One last question for you.
Which side are you betting on at this level:
will it hold $1 and keep rising, or head straight for 0.6463?
Leave your pick and your stop level in the comments,
and I’ll pick a few to go over the reasoning together.
These are my personal chart notes, not investment advice. Manage your position size carefully.