$ETH ’s second test of $2,500 left behind a weaker completed hourly candle than the previous one. I’m lowering my assessment of the recovery further: the price briefly moved back above the round-number level, but neither the close nor the support below followed through.
The previous 20:00–21:00 candle closed at 2,498, already below 2,500, with volume down 25.6% and the share of aggressive buying falling to 49.1%. At that point, the low of 2,493.28 was still above the previous hour’s 2,489, leaving some room for support to hold. Now, from 21:00 to 22:00 Beijing time, the high was 2,503.90, the low was 2,476.87, and the close was 2,484.37, down about 0.55% for the hour. The price crossed 2,500 again intrahour, but ultimately closed lower, breaking below both 2,489 and the earlier 2,487.57. Even the previous candle’s only remaining higher low did not hold.
This new candle changes the assessment in two ways. First, there was another failed test near 2,500, so a headline about “breaking above 2,500” should not be taken as proof that the price has established itself above that level. Second, the lows have continued to fall, so weakness is no longer limited to a retreat by the close. Looking only at the moment the price crossed a round number misses the entire move from the high back to the close.
It’s also worth looking at the direction of trading activity. Volume from 21:00 to 22:00 was about 30.7952 million USDT, up 37.9% from roughly 22.3326 million in the previous hour. Aggressive buy volume was about 14.4977 million, or 47.1% of the total, down further from 49.1%. This compares two consecutive completed hours: prices fell, trading volume rebounded, and the share of aggressive buying declined. Together, these three signals support the view that the recovery has weakened further.
But higher volume cannot be directly interpreted as new capital flowing out, nor can market-wide liquidations be calculated from a single spot candle. An aggressive-buy share below half describes the direction in which trades in this pair were initiated; it does not establish the identity of buyers or represent activity across all platforms. A more cautious interpretation is that upward price movement during this window did not offset selling pressure, so the earlier explanation of a modest pullback needs to be revised.
Compared with the previous piece, this update adds a new low of 2,476.87, a break below 2,487.57, and the fact that the price still failed to reclaim 2,500 even after volume rose 37.9%. The new data reinforces the earlier assessment that the recovery was being held back, while weakening the support suggested by the previous low. This does not mean every future candle will keep falling, and an intrahour rebound should not be treated in advance as confirmation by the next completed close.
The data comes from Binance ETHUSDT spot-market, completed one-hour candles; prices are in USDT. The hour after 22:00 is not yet complete. If the price reaches 2,500 again, I’ll first look to see whether it can hold there at the close, then whether volume genuinely supports further upside. Below, I’ll watch whether 2,476.87 is breached again. Above, the price needs to reclaim 2,487.57–2,493.28 before testing 2,500 and the quality of the 2,503.90 test. If it keeps moving above these levels intrahour only to fall back by the close, the recovery still lacks consecutive evidence.
The previous 20:00–21:00 candle closed at 2,498, already below 2,500, with volume down 25.6% and the share of aggressive buying falling to 49.1%. At that point, the low of 2,493.28 was still above the previous hour’s 2,489, leaving some room for support to hold. Now, from 21:00 to 22:00 Beijing time, the high was 2,503.90, the low was 2,476.87, and the close was 2,484.37, down about 0.55% for the hour. The price crossed 2,500 again intrahour, but ultimately closed lower, breaking below both 2,489 and the earlier 2,487.57. Even the previous candle’s only remaining higher low did not hold.
This new candle changes the assessment in two ways. First, there was another failed test near 2,500, so a headline about “breaking above 2,500” should not be taken as proof that the price has established itself above that level. Second, the lows have continued to fall, so weakness is no longer limited to a retreat by the close. Looking only at the moment the price crossed a round number misses the entire move from the high back to the close.
It’s also worth looking at the direction of trading activity. Volume from 21:00 to 22:00 was about 30.7952 million USDT, up 37.9% from roughly 22.3326 million in the previous hour. Aggressive buy volume was about 14.4977 million, or 47.1% of the total, down further from 49.1%. This compares two consecutive completed hours: prices fell, trading volume rebounded, and the share of aggressive buying declined. Together, these three signals support the view that the recovery has weakened further.
But higher volume cannot be directly interpreted as new capital flowing out, nor can market-wide liquidations be calculated from a single spot candle. An aggressive-buy share below half describes the direction in which trades in this pair were initiated; it does not establish the identity of buyers or represent activity across all platforms. A more cautious interpretation is that upward price movement during this window did not offset selling pressure, so the earlier explanation of a modest pullback needs to be revised.
Compared with the previous piece, this update adds a new low of 2,476.87, a break below 2,487.57, and the fact that the price still failed to reclaim 2,500 even after volume rose 37.9%. The new data reinforces the earlier assessment that the recovery was being held back, while weakening the support suggested by the previous low. This does not mean every future candle will keep falling, and an intrahour rebound should not be treated in advance as confirmation by the next completed close.
The data comes from Binance ETHUSDT spot-market, completed one-hour candles; prices are in USDT. The hour after 22:00 is not yet complete. If the price reaches 2,500 again, I’ll first look to see whether it can hold there at the close, then whether volume genuinely supports further upside. Below, I’ll watch whether 2,476.87 is breached again. Above, the price needs to reclaim 2,487.57–2,493.28 before testing 2,500 and the quality of the 2,503.90 test. If it keeps moving above these levels intrahour only to fall back by the close, the recovery still lacks consecutive evidence.