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Urgent: Sharp drop in U.S. consumer
confidence and rise in inflation expectations

The University of Michigan’s U.S. consumer sentiment index fell to 46.3 in the preliminary October reading, from 48.1 in September, missing expectations of 47.5 by about 1.2 points. Five-year inflation expectations rose to 3.5% from 3.4%, while one-year inflation expectations came in slightly below forecast, at 4.7% versus 4.8% expected and 4.6% previously. The reading was released at 5 p.m. Saudi time.

The numbers

Consumer Sentiment Index: 46.3, versus an estimate of 47.5 and a previous reading of 48.1 (-1.8 points, -3.7%), its lowest level since May (44.8).
Expectations Index: 47.3, above the estimate of 45.9 and about 1.0 point (+2.2%) higher than September’s 46.3.
One-year inflation expectations: 4.7%, below the estimate (4.8%) and 0.1 point above the previous 4.6%.
Five-year inflation expectations: 3.5% versus 3.4% previously, about 0.3 points above the upper end of the 2024 range (2.8%-3.2%).
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