Ethereum Navigates a Cooling Labor Market and Tightening Supply Dynamics
$ETH is currently treading water around the 2487.45 level as the market digests a massive shift in the US labor narrative. The recent Nonfarm Payrolls coming in at a fraction of the expected 90,000 jobs has effectively confirmed that the labor market is cooling faster than many anticipated. This sets a heavy stage for the upcoming CPI release where the consensus is looking for headline inflation to drop further to 2.4 percent. While the Fed already moved with a rate cut in September, the cooling employment data combined with a potentially softer CPI could provide the liquidity relief risk assets have been waiting for.
On-chain, the picture for ETH is equally intense. We just watched a massive whale get liquidated for nearly 70 million dollars, yet that same entity is still sitting on over 78,955 ETH in long positions. This shows a huge amount of conviction despite the leverage washouts we saw recently. Those liquidations happened near the 2300 level, which is now acting as a major floor for spot holders.
One thing to keep an eye on is the supply side. We are currently seeing about 0.2 percent annual inflation in the circulating supply of 122.1 million ETH. The ultrasound money theme has quieted down as burn rates struggle to keep up with issuance. With the FOMC meeting on the horizon and the DXY showing significant sensitivity to these inflation prints, ETH is caught between a softening macro environment and its own shifting tokenomics. If CPI comes in below the 2.4 percent target, we might see a significant shift in how the market prices in the end of the year.
Are you watching the CPI release at 12:30 UTC as a pivot point for your spot holdings or just another volatility event?
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#NFP #MacroData
$ETH is currently treading water around the 2487.45 level as the market digests a massive shift in the US labor narrative. The recent Nonfarm Payrolls coming in at a fraction of the expected 90,000 jobs has effectively confirmed that the labor market is cooling faster than many anticipated. This sets a heavy stage for the upcoming CPI release where the consensus is looking for headline inflation to drop further to 2.4 percent. While the Fed already moved with a rate cut in September, the cooling employment data combined with a potentially softer CPI could provide the liquidity relief risk assets have been waiting for.
On-chain, the picture for ETH is equally intense. We just watched a massive whale get liquidated for nearly 70 million dollars, yet that same entity is still sitting on over 78,955 ETH in long positions. This shows a huge amount of conviction despite the leverage washouts we saw recently. Those liquidations happened near the 2300 level, which is now acting as a major floor for spot holders.
One thing to keep an eye on is the supply side. We are currently seeing about 0.2 percent annual inflation in the circulating supply of 122.1 million ETH. The ultrasound money theme has quieted down as burn rates struggle to keep up with issuance. With the FOMC meeting on the horizon and the DXY showing significant sensitivity to these inflation prints, ETH is caught between a softening macro environment and its own shifting tokenomics. If CPI comes in below the 2.4 percent target, we might see a significant shift in how the market prices in the end of the year.
Are you watching the CPI release at 12:30 UTC as a pivot point for your spot holdings or just another volatility event?
_
#NFP #MacroData