林一自由之路

An 80% win rate can still come with a record of losses.

Let’s use a purely hypothetical example: all ten trades are closed, with a net profit of 1 USDT on each of eight trades and a net loss of 5 USDT on each of the other two. The net amount for each trade already includes trading fees.

Win rate: 8 ÷ 10 = 80%.
Total profit and loss: 8 × 1 − 2 × 5 = −2 USDT.

You win far more often than you lose, yet you still end up losing money. In this example, one losing trade wipes out the profits from five winning trades.

So when I see an “80% win rate,” I also look for three figures: the average profit per trade, the average loss per trade, and the total net profit or loss across all trades. I also check whether any losing trades are missing—counting only the posted screenshots of winning trades won’t do.

These ten trades are just a mathematical example, not anyone’s real trading record, and they can’t be used to predict future win rates.

Next time you review your trades, look at your win rate and net profit or loss on the same page.

Concept reference: Binance Academy, “Win Rate”
https://www.binance.com/en/academy/glossary/win-rate

——Lin Yi’s Road to Freedom · Lin Yi Freedom Community

Why can a perpetual contract still incur fees when no new trades have been made?

The answer may be funding fees. They are settled between traders holding long and short positions, and are separate from the trading fees charged when a trade is executed: when the rate is positive, longs pay shorts; when it is negative, the direction is reversed.

Here’s a purely hypothetical example of a USDT-margined perpetual contract: if you still hold a long position at settlement, and its notional value based on the mark price is 1,000 USDT, with a settlement funding rate of +0.01%, you pay:
1,000 × 0.01% = 0.10 USDT.

The calculation is based on the position’s value, not the margin. This example covers only the funding fee for this settlement; it excludes trading fees and price gains or losses, and does not reflect the current actual rate.

Settlement intervals vary by contract and may also be adjusted, so don’t assume every contract settles “every 8 hours.” Check the rate and settlement countdown on the contract’s page, and refer to the actual settlement record for the final amount.

When reviewing your trades, record the funding fee’s time, payment direction, and amount on a separate line. Don’t mix it up with trading fees.

Source: Binance Futures Funding Rate Introduction
https://www.binance.com/en/support/faq/detail/360033525031

—Lin Yi’s Road to Freedom · Lin Yi Freedom Community

BTC and ETH both closed higher over the past hour. I’ll note the rebound for now without rushing to call a reversal.

At 15:02 Beijing time on October 9, Binance USDT spot: BTC was at 82,561.74, down 0.27% over the past 24 hours; ETH was at 2,499.52, down 2.49% over the past 24 hours.

In the hourly candle that just closed, from 14:00 to 15:00, BTC rose about 0.27% and ETH rose about 0.34%. Both saw a short-term recovery.

ETH’s hourly candle reached a high of 2,502.38 and closed at 2,499.62, just 0.38 USDT below 2,500. That small gap alone isn’t enough to prove a “failed breakout,” nor does it justify labeling 2,500 a strong resistance level.

What’s clearer for now is that both closed higher over the past hour, while BTC’s decline was smaller over this 24-hour window. This only indicates the relative strength observed at present; it doesn’t guarantee which one will continue to lead.

The 15:00 hourly candle hasn’t closed yet. Let’s first record the price moves that have already occurred, then wait for subsequent action to confirm the trend.

Data source: Binance spot 24-hour market data and 1-hour candlesticks, collected at 15:02.

——Lin Yi’s Road to Freedom · Lin Yi Freedom Community

Why can liquidation still be triggered even if the latest traded price hasn’t been reached?

For contracts, first distinguish between two prices: the latest traded price comes from the most recent transaction; the mark price is the platform’s risk-control reference price. The two may differ.

Binance Futures uses the mark price as the basis for liquidation judgments, together with margin and maintenance margin requirements. Simply watching the latest traded price candlesticks is not enough to conclude that a position has not yet entered liquidation conditions.

When checking risk, look at the current mark price, the estimated liquidation price, and the margin ratio together. The estimated liquidation price is also affected by factors such as margin and position size, and is not always a fixed line.

There is another difference: the price that triggers liquidation is not necessarily the actual execution price at which the position is finally processed. When the market moves sharply, this is especially important to note.

To review a liquidation, first verify the price type, time, and account status, then discuss whether it was truly “not yet at the price.”

Reference: Binance Futures liquidation explanation
https://www.binance.com/en/support/faq/detail/360033525271

—— Lin Yi Free Road · Lin Yi Free Community

Even if you select “Limit,” you may still pay taker fees.

A limit buy order sets the highest price you’re willing to pay, but it doesn’t guarantee that your order will wait in the queue to be filled.

Suppose the order book stays the same and the lowest ask is 100 USDT: if you submit a regular limit buy order at 101, any portion that immediately matches existing sell orders is a taker fill. The execution price doesn’t necessarily have to be 101 either.

If a limit buy order at 99 rests in the order book first and is later filled by a newly arriving sell order, that portion is a maker fill. A single regular limit order may include both types of fills.

So when checking fees, first look at which type each individual fill belongs to, then compare it with the rates that applied to that account and trading pair at the time. Seeing “Limit” on the order alone isn’t enough to tell.

This is a hypothetical matching example, not advice to adjust fees or place an order.

——Lin Yi’s Road to Freedom · Lin Yi Freedom Community

When you see the trading volume suddenly magnify, don’t immediately read it as “new capital flowing in.”

Let’s assume an ordinary spot trade: ignoring fees, the buyer pays 100 USDT to receive the asset, and the seller delivers the asset and receives 100 USDT. The trade value is 100 USDT, but from the trade alone, you can’t tell whether this money was just transferred onto the platform or it has already been sitting in the account.

The same piece of capital participating in multiple trades will keep adding up to the trading volume as well. Cumulative trading volume can’t be taken directly as newly deposited funds.

Trading volume is useful—it reflects the scale of trading and is one perspective for assessing market activity. As for “net inflow,” you need to look at the specific statistics and the calculation method; if you only look at trading volume, you can’t determine how much is truly new money versus how much is turnover from existing holdings.

Next time you see a conclusion like “volume is expanding, so the main force is entering,” first look for the statistical basis behind it. A large number can indicate active trading, but it can’t independently prove the buyer’s identity or the source of the funds.

——Lin Yi, Freedom Road · Lin Yi Free Community

Percentage gain leaderboard +20%—why you might still lose money?

Here’s a purely hypothetical example: Suppose a coin’s price was 100 USDT 24 hours ago, and it is now 120 USDT, so the rolling 24-hour price increase is +20%.

But assume you didn’t use leverage. You bought 1 coin at 130 USDT and held it until now. Estimated at 120 USDT, your unrealized loss is 10 USDT, and your return rate is about -7.69%—not even counting trading fees.

Neither side is wrong; it’s just that the comparison points differ: the market’s figures are calculated from the start of the statistics window, while your profit/loss is calculated from your actual purchase cost. And the -7.69% is not the return rate on contract margin.

Next time you look at the gain leaderboard, first confirm what time period the leaderboard uses. Then review your own profit/loss—go back to your execution average price, the number of coins held, and your fees. The rolling 24-hour window moves forward continuously; it doesn’t restart from the moment you bought.

— Lin Yi, Freedom Road · Lin Yi Freedom Community

“Customer service” urges you to send a verification code? First, switch to another entry point to verify.

After receiving a private message saying “Account abnormality—freezing will be lifted soon,” don’t let the countdown rush you. A profile photo, a nickname, and chat screenshots can’t independently prove who the other person is.

Remember one action: exit this conversation, then open the official app you normally use and verify via the customer service entry point. Don’t “verify the other party” by following any links, QR codes, or phone numbers sent by the other person.

Before verification, don’t send passwords or verification codes, don’t enable screen sharing, don’t install any remote control software recommended by the other person, and don’t transfer money to so-called “safety accounts.” Even if they claim they’re helping you handle your account, pause these actions first.

Binance provides an official verification channel through Binance Verify. If verification doesn’t pass, treat this contact as an untrusted source for now.

Next time you’re pressured, remember: the customer service identity must be confirmed through an independent entry point—you can’t rely on the other party proving it themselves.

Based on: Binance’s official “How to Identify and Avoid Binance Imposters With Binance Verify”
https://www.binance.com/en/blog/security/299010416215875222

——Lin Yi, a free path · Lin Yi Free Community

Stop-loss first, take-profit later—is this trade a gain or a loss?

Suppose you buy 1 unit for 100 USDT, plan to set a stop-loss at 98 and a take-profit at 106, and indeed sell the entire position at 98. The price then rises to 106.

The trade still lost 2 USDT, not counting trading fees. The subsequent price rise can help you review your entry and exit criteria, but it cannot rewrite the loss that already occurred. A single rebound also isn’t enough to prove that your stop-loss was set incorrectly.

I prefer to record three things separately: the expected direction, whether the original plan was followed, and the actual net profit or loss. We can debate the judgment, but we can’t revise executed trades after the fact.

What evidence do you usually use to decide whether a stop-loss was normal or whether the trading plan needs adjusting?

——Lin Yi’s Road to Freedom · Lin Yi Freedom Community

20% futures trading fee rebate—exactly which costs are you saving?

Let’s do the math: Suppose you incur 100 USDT in futures trading fees that qualify for a rebate. At a 20% rate, you get 20 USDT in fees back. It’s not 20 USDT for depositing 100, nor 20 USDT in compensation for losing 100.

Before counting on a rebate, check three things: whether your referral code was linked correctly, what rebate rate the page shows, and whether your account and trades qualify. Don’t focus only on a percentage in promotional materials.

My futures trading fee rebate offer is 20%. Referral code: BIAN25. Available only to users who meet Binance Futures and referral program eligibility requirements. The linking method, eligible trades, actual rate, and payout rules are subject to the information on Binance’s page. If the page differs from the promotion, verify the details first. Don’t place trades just to test the rebate.

Referral link: https://accounts.binance.com/zh-CN/register?ref=BIAN25

Disclosure: I may receive referral commissions from qualifying trades made through my referral link. Futures trading involves leverage and liquidation risks. A fee discount does not mean a trade will be profitable, and it’s not worth increasing your trading frequency just to earn rebates.

Follow me, and I’ll explain fees, account security, and trade reviews step by step in future posts. What are you least clear about: the linking requirements or how to check your rebate history?

——Lin Yi’s Path to Freedom · Lin Yi Freedom Community

**Bitcoin falls to 83,000; I’m still choosing to go short tonight**

Bitcoin: I’m continuing to favor a short position tonight.

At 21:13 Beijing time on October 7, Binance BTC/USDT spot was trading at 83,380 USDT. The most concerning thing about this move is that the rebound is losing momentum: from 14:00 to 20:00, the highs and closing prices of seven consecutive completed hourly candles kept declining, with the hourly high falling from 84,379 to 83,767. Every attempt to turn higher was pushed back down to a lower level.

My view is that buyers have yet to regain the initiative, and downside pressure has not eased. Seeing the price return to around 83,000 is not, by itself, enough to conclude that a bottom is in.

There is also support for the bullish case. Farside data shows net inflows of $118.8 million into US spot Bitcoin ETFs on October 6. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve calendar shows that the meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 a.m. on October 8, so tonight we need to be alert to a sharp news-driven rebound.

The reference price for this afternoon’s original view was 84,296.81 USDT. The 83,600 take-profit level has been reached, while the 84,600 stop-loss remains unchanged. This post continues to track the original thesis, with the verification period still ending at 14:12 on October 8; reaching the target early does not mean the entire position should be declared closed ahead of schedule.

— Lin Yi Free Community · Investment Research Notes

ORCA is my short pick tonight. It surged to 3.335 USDT at one point during the day, looking ready to take off, but now it looks more like a firework coming back down to earth.

At 20:03 Beijing time, Binance’s ORCA/USDT spot pair was trading at 2.744. What really made me side with the bears wasn’t simply that it had risen too much, but that the baton had been dropped at the highs: its final push at 15:00 reached 3.072, and the highs of the next three full hourly candles fell successively to 2.971, 2.915, and 2.887. The 19:00 hour was even more telling: the price plunged from 2.863 to 2.761, while trading volume was higher than at 18:00.

Trading volume over the past 24 hours was about 46.43 million USDT, 4.6 times the average of roughly 10.14 million across the previous seven complete trading days. With volume this high, yet the price unable to hold near its highs, I read this as buyers chasing the rally starting to exit—not quiet accumulation.

The counterargument is clear too: ORCA is still up about 6.9% over the past 24 hours, and coins like this can rebound fast. Reference price: 2.744 USDT; take-profit: 2.50; stop-loss: 2.92. The former is near the 24-hour low of 2.474, while the latter is set above the 19:00 rebound high of 2.915.

—Lin Yi Freedom Community · Investment Research Notes

Today I’m choosing to short BTC. That move this morning wasn’t an ordinary pullback—it was the floor beneath the bulls getting smashed through.

At 14:12 Beijing time, Binance BTC/USDT spot was trading at $84,296.81. From 09:00 to 10:59, two full hourly candles pushed the price down from around $85,540 to $83,868. Trading volume during the 10:00 hour was about $185 million, and the consolidation floor around $85,400 broke on heavy volume.

More importantly, although the next three full hourly candles rebounded, their high was only $84,343.97. They never reclaimed $84,533.27, the upper bound of the post-breakdown rebound. I see this as a breather after the drop, not the bulls taking back control. Over the next 24 hours, a retest of today’s low is more likely.

There’s also a counterpoint: buyers have already stepped in at $83,577, and if bears chase the price down too aggressively, they could get caught in a rebound. So, using $84,296.81 as the reference price, my take-profit is $83,600 and my stop-loss is $84,600. If the stop-loss is hit, this bearish view is invalidated.

—Lin Yi Free Community · Research Notes

$340 million worth of HYPE unlocks tomorrow morning, and a whale is holding a 5x leveraged long.

So what will tomorrow bring—a sell-off, or a squeeze that takes out everyone who shorted too early?
I think that’s what’s most worth watching with HYPE tonight.

The average person’s first reaction is simple:

A huge amount of tokens is unlocking, so supply is suddenly increasing. Of course you should short ahead of it.

But that’s the tricky thing about trading—**when everyone knows the unlock is coming tomorrow, is it still bearish news?**

The market has already started pricing in that expectation.

Even more interestingly, on-chain data shows a whale holding a 5x leveraged long of around 1.38 million HYPE, with a massive unrealized profit.

So tomorrow, what I’ll be watching isn’t the word “unlock”—it’s this:

**Will there actually be large-scale selling pressure after the unlock?**

If a large number of tokens are released but HYPE refuses to drop, I’ll be on alert for one thing:

**The shorts who got in early could be the fuel for the next rally.**

But if it breaks below key support on heavy volume after the unlock, then there’s no need for a story—the market has already given its answer.

That’s why I’m not going to blindly short just because I see the words “$340 million unlock” tonight.

**I’ll be back at 8 a.m. tomorrow to see how it played out.**

What do you think—will the longs get liquidated first, or the shorts?

$HYPE

Bitcoin: I’m going long today. This pullback was certainly painful, but I think there’s still a chance it will rally again and retest this morning’s high, with a target around 87,000.

Looking at Binance’s completed hourly candles: last night at 23:00, the high was 85,470; today at 13:00, the price briefly plunged to 85,412, but ultimately closed at 85,767.57. The price tested lower, then climbed back above last night’s high. I interpret this as buyers stepping in during the retest, providing a basis for another move higher.

So I’m betting on a rebound after this pullback. Whether it plays out depends on whether buying pressure can continue to push the price up; one hourly rebound candle alone isn’t enough.

However, this rebound candle traded about 57.6 million USDT, less than the 76.92 million during the previous hour’s decline. The bulls don’t yet have a clear advantage in trading volume. If the price touches 85,412 again, I’ll admit this bullish call was wrong.

Binance BTC/USDT spot, reference price at 14:31:43 Beijing time on October 5: 85,918; take profit: 86,999.11; stop loss: 85,412. All figures are in USDT.

— Lin Yi Free Community · Investment Research Notes

FET, today I’m going long. This pullback hasn’t managed to shake out the longs yet. I think it may try once more to test the high from this morning.

On Binance’s hourly chart, after a retest of 0.2501 around 5:00 a.m., price bounced. The lowest at noon only dipped to 0.2550, and the close remained at 0.2568. The retracement is definitely annoying, but the sell-side hasn’t, for now, been able to push the price back down to the early-morning lows. That’s the core reason I’m bullish.

Trading volume has also picked up. As of 13:18 Beijing time on Oct 5, the past 24 hours saw about 45.33 million USDT in volume—about 1.73 times the average of the prior seven full trading days. My view is that with activity increasing and the low point of pullbacks rising, price is supported to try again at 0.2650.

The risk is also clear: FET is already up about 15% today. Bitcoin in the morning has also fallen again from near 87,000 USDT, so profit-taking sell orders may continue to pressure the price. If 0.2501 is touched, then this time the long thesis is wrong.

On Binance spot FET/USDT, the reference price at 13:18:28 on Oct 5 is 0.2568. Take-profit: 0.2650. Stop-loss: 0.2501. (All units are USDT.)

— Lin Yi Free Community · Research Notes

Today I choose to short SAND. During the rebound this evening, I’m not buying it.

Binance’s two hourly candles for 18:00–19:00 and 19:00–20:00 have already closed today at 0.07192 and 0.07310, both below yesterday’s high of 0.07350. After breaking upward in the morning, it fell back again tonight. I judge that the upward push force for the short term is weakening.

More importantly, during the drop from 18:00–19:00, the trading volume was about 4.03 million USDT. In the next hour, the rebound’s volume was only 1.67 million—less than half. The rebound hasn’t seen increased trading activity, so I’m more inclined to think this pullback will continue, and will retest the low at 0.07080.

Coinone revoked its trading warning and resumed deposits/withdrawals on October 2. This bullish news hasn’t disappeared; a sudden spike upward may still happen. So yes, short it—but if you encounter the rebound high from the most recent hour, admit you’re wrong, and don’t move the stop-loss further and further away.

As of 20:07 Beijing time on October 3 for Binance SAND/USDT spot: reference price 0.07333, take-profit 0.07080, stop-loss 0.07433, unit USDT.

— Lin Yi Free Community · Research Notes

NEAR, tonight I choose to go short.
I’m looking at a rebound that got sold down again. Binance spot today saw the highest rebound at 5.066 USDT around midday; then from 15:00 to 19:00, five consecutive full hourly candles closed lower, ending at 4.845. The bid pushed the price back toward 5, but it couldn’t hold. I think this pullback isn’t over yet.
More importantly, as of 20:04, Bitcoin is up about 2.9% over the past 24 hours, while NEAR is down about 5.4%. The overall market is strengthening, yet it can’t hold the rebound. I’m more inclined to believe that its own selling pressure hasn’t been fully digested, and the next move is still likely to bring it near 4.75.
However, it did rebound around 4.75 earlier in the night—there were buyers there—so you can’t infinitely expand the downside. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the Non-Farm Payrolls at 20:30 tonight, and the data could also trigger a sharp snapback. If my stop-loss is hit, this trade idea ends.
Reference price: 4.839, take-profit: 4.750, stop-loss: 4.950#near

Has anyone in the QNT shorts family already eaten it? From now on, every order I post will include the take-profit and stop-loss levels. Follow/subscribe to get first-hand updates. #QNT