Bitcoin’s pullback in the current cycle has been relatively mild; applying the historical average pullback would imply a price of around $74,500

On October 9, CryptoQuant analyst MAC_D wrote that Bitcoin fell about 7.61% from its October 5 high of $87,027 to its October 9 low of $80,404. This is close to the average pullback of 7.58% during the 2022–2025 bull market, but remains below the historical overall average of 14.39% in the data he analyzed.

The Bitcoin bull-market drawdown indicator compares price declines from interim highs across bull-market cycles. Average pullbacks in the 2010–2011, 2011–2013, 2015–2017, and 2018–2021 cycles were 18.41%, 21.71%, 10.93%, and 19.39%, respectively. The pullback in the most recent cycle has been relatively mild.

He noted that applying the historical average pullback of 14.39% to the recent high would imply a price of around $74,500, which could serve as a reference point in the event of further downside. He believes investors could consider gradually accumulating BTC near $80,000 and increasing buying activity in the $74,000–$75,000 range.