[A Bagholder’s Self-Defense Manifesto · Part Seven · Settlement Time]
Prologue: The end is the starting line for the account statement.
In his post sharing the replay of the October 7 livestream, he wrote the eight most emphatic words of this market cycle: “It’s not that I can short—I’m all in on shorts. It’s not that I can make money—I’ve already made a killing!”
On October 8, with BTC plunging to 80,394, he posted twice in quick succession: “The first phase of my short position is over. Waiting for phase two! If it rebounds to these levels, I’ll short again~” He also posted a “THANK YOU TO ALL THE FANS” finale poster, which drew 46.1k views.
For the first time in this seven-part series, he announced on his own that it was over. And in this series, “over” means only one thing—the time has come to show the trading statements.
1. The math behind the big profits: which trade is making money, and which hasn’t been profitable for 21 days.
On October 8, the low was 80,394—the closest price had come to 79,400 since he called the trade on September 18, and it was still 1.25% away. In other words, that 79,400 short position hasn’t been profitable for a single hour in the 21 days since he called it—not even on the day of the crash.
The only trades he could have made a killing on are the new batch of shorts: the ones entered around 84,000 on October 2, now up about 4% at 80,394.
The only thing he ever makes money on is a new trade. The old trades still in the red are left to sink with the people who followed him on September 18. Those people are still down about 4.6% right now, and have to watch him announce a huge profit.
2. It’s over. Post your trade details, then.
The rule for this series was laid down in the very first installment: he posts his trades, we settle the books. Now he has announced that stage one is over—when it’s over, it’s time to settle up, and there’s only one thing that should appear now: the account statement.
Entry price, leverage, stop-loss price, exit price. Four numbers.
Over the past three weeks, he’s posted screenshots of 120,000 U in tips, $4,124 in livestream income, a $1,979 profit ranking, his short positions, and a victory poster—but never these four numbers.
Stage two is already underway (“short at these rebound levels”), but the stage-one trades are still locked away in his pocket. A trader’s stage can be over; the questions from the suckers never are.
3. What should you do with your long position? I don't know.
To a follower asking for help with a long position, he said: “The moment you chose to go long, you decided someone else was more skilled than I am. You should ask the person you decided that about, not me.”
There are two layers to this. First, he forgot the title of his own September 18 post on Binance Square: “Big profits rolling in on my long! Trading is actually simple.” The longs are students he taught; now their corpses are his talking point.
Second: “I don’t know.” Someone who gives you a direction every day suddenly gets amnesia when the market moves against you. A trade caller sells you a direction; there’s no warranty. Your margin is the only thing that can cushion the blow.
4. Stage two: keep a ledger ready.
He says to short at these rebound levels. Fine—let this article stand as a record: by October 9, BTC had rebounded to about 83,030, up 3.3% from the low of 80,394. If the stage-two short was opened above 83,000, it was already near breakeven at entry. If the rebound continues, the October 2 batch will play out all over again: enter, move against the position, go into the red, hold on, and wait for the next crash.
We don’t change his trades. We just keep his books.
Conclusion: You made a killing in stage one—congratulations. Now post your trade details.
That 79,400 trade is still underwater: day 21, four numbers still owed.
Whenever he posts the trade details, this series will take a day off from covering him—that’s the promise made in the very first installment.
Sources: All posts on Yan Chi Bit’s Binance Square profile from the evening of October 7 through October 9 (individually checked against the live page on the evening of October 9, including the October 7 livestream replay post, the two October 8 posts declaring the trade complete and the victory poster, and the response to the long-position question); market prices verified against Binance and OKX APIs (about 83,030 when this article was published on October 9; October 8 low of 80,394); historical posts from September 16 to October 7 archived individually for this series. This article comments on publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice.