$NVDA AI capital expenditure is reaching a credit inflection point. The capital spending of major AI players is gradually shifting from a technology story to a credit and macroeconomic risk. Cloud providers are burning cash far faster than revenue can catch up; free cash flow is turning negative across the board, and debt financing has become the main source of funding. High U.S. Treasury yields are raising financing costs, eroding AI companies’ advantage in corporate bond spreads, while Oracle’s CDS has surged and default risk is being repriced. Risk is being shifted into the shadow banking system through highly leveraged vehicles such as SPVs, and is heavily concentrated in the same AI cycle. The IMF and BIS warn that AI investment is driving up inflation, squeezing room for monetary policy, and creating a vicious cycle with sovereign debt. Market pricing has shifted from “believing in growth” to “scrutinizing leverage.” The central question is whether debt-fueled expansion can keep pace with the speed of commercialization and monetization. Risks are building and could erupt at any moment.