The strange thing about this rally is that it breaks the usual timing patterns of traditional market cycles.

Many people are still applying lessons from the past to the current market, assuming that prices will accelerate upward after moving sideways. But I believe this is precisely when the risk is greatest.

The core logic:

The flow of funds doesn't support it: the current liquidity level (87.55) is nowhere near enough to sustain a new major uptrend. Without fresh capital, it's all just a zero-sum game among existing players—how can prices rise?

Sentiment is overheated: the Fear and Greed Index has remained elevated for a long time, which is often a precursor to a market reversal. The big players need this kind of atmosphere to mask their selling.

Technical divergence: prices appear resilient, but volume and market structure have already deteriorated. This kind of “consolidation at the highs” is often a pause before another leg down.

Potential trajectory:

I think we're in the final rally of the bear-market cycle. The purpose of this rally is to create the illusion that the bull market is still going, attracting sidelined capital to step in and buy the top.

Once the distribution is complete, the market will see one “final crash.” It will be brutal: a 20–30% drop in BTC in a single day will be just the appetizer. The true bottom will form amid panic.

Where is the bottom?

Taking macro conditions and on-chain data into account, I think $45,000–$52,000 is a reasonable range. It may sound outrageous right now, but in this market, anything is possible.

Think back to the crash in March 2020—who could have predicted it in advance?

Trading strategy:

Leave the tail of the fish; wait for the body.

The best move right now is to stay out of the market, or use only a tiny position to get a feel for it. Put most of your energy into researching the next round of alpha instead of speculating at these high levels.

The real opportunity will come after December, or next year. By then, the market will offer you an exceptionally attractive entry point.

Now? Patience is more valuable than gold.$BTC $ETH $BNB #以太坊升破2500美元 #Solana计划将出块时间缩至200毫秒