Trump says he “won’t strike Iran before the midterm elections.” If the market takes that as a sign of de-escalation, it’s completely misreading the situation.

He may say he won’t act for now, but the Defense Department is already drawing up new strike plans, and sanctions on oil tankers haven’t let up for a moment. This is no ceasefire—it’s a clear sign that the geopolitical fuse has been pushed back to after the election.

Restraint doesn’t mean the threat is gone; if anything, it tightens expectations. As long as strike plans are moving forward and sanctions remain intense, the geopolitical premium beneath crude prices won’t disappear. Don’t mistake an alarm that’s been postponed for a dove of peace.
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