With just 5 days until CPI, can $BTC the bulls keep holding on?
Bottom line: this isn’t the time to chase the rally—it’s a time to see who blinks first.
I. This move
On the 1-hour chart, the high over the last 120 candles was 86,999, the low was 80,393, and the current price is 82,601, down about 2.97% from the range high.
Bollinger Bands: upper band 83,158, middle band 82,043, lower band 80,928.
Price is grinding just above the middle band, with no directional move on significant volume.
II. What the market is worried about
1) According to Lookonchain, about 17,733 BTC (worth around $1.48 billion) were transferred to Coinbase Prime by the U.S. government over the past 3 days.
A transfer to an exchange doesn’t necessarily mean a sale, but the market will price in that possibility ahead of time.
2) Mining company MARA was observed selling 996 BTC, worth approximately $81.13 million.
3) CPI will be announced next Wednesday, October 14, at 20:30 Beijing time. This is the next major catalyst.
III. My key levels
・Key level 1: 82,043 (Bollinger Band middle line). Holding above it means the bulls are still in control, with price action tilted toward the upside.
・Key level 2: 80,928 (lower Bollinger Band). A break below it puts the previous low at 80,393 in focus.
・Resistance above: 83,158. Only a high-volume break and hold above this level would put 86,999 in play.
・Invalidation: If the 1-hour candle closes below 80,393 consecutively, I'll admit I'm wrong, and the bearish view will be confirmed.
IV. What this means for you
Volatility usually contracts ahead of CPI, and the real direction is often decided within minutes of the data release.
Don't take a large position betting on direction before the data comes out. Managing your position size and stop-loss is more important than guessing correctly.
I'll review these levels after the data comes out and share whether I got it right or wrong.
What do you think: before CPI, will $BTC break below 80,393 first, or move above 83,158? Leave your answer in the comments.
Just my personal opinion. Be mindful of the risks and do your own research (DYOR).