Pre-market analysis of U.S. stocks: all three major indexes are rebounding, and tech stocks are rallying across the board 🔥
Before the market opens, memory and optical communications stocks are staging a sharp oversold rebound. Aside from Apple, nearly everything is up more than 1% at the open.
Memory stocks in particular, including $SNDK , have been trending lower intraday for several days. Sentiment has clearly improved today, but we should still be cautious. After all, it’s Friday, and investors are mainly focused on defense.
The main reason for the decline was that OpenAI’s revenue came in at just $50 billion, far below the market’s estimate of $70 billion. Oracle, SoftBank, and AMD have huge computing-power contracts tied to OpenAI. A $20 billion revenue shortfall means the orders across the entire supply chain have to be recalculated.
I think the market is worried about whether all the money being poured into buying chips and building data centers for AI can actually be recouped. Expectations have been allowed to run too high.
Also, the earlier projection was indeed for revenue to reach $70 billion by year-end, but the market misunderstood it. Although a timely clarification helped sentiment recover, with less than three months left, reaching $70 billion will be a major challenge for OpenAI.
At the very least, revenue would need to grow by 40% to hit that target. Market expectations for AI are already too high, and concerns about an AI bubble have persisted. AI itself also burns through cash, so even the slightest tremor gets magnified out of all proportion.
Overall, I’m not too worried about the long-term direction of AI, but tonight’s recovery has been very tentative. After-hours trading could see a gap up followed by a flat session, or a gap up followed by a decline. Global risk aversion is extremely high right now, and without good news, the market has no reassurance to hold on to, making it hard to avoid a drop. #Solana计划将出块时间缩至200毫秒
Before the market opens, memory and optical communications stocks are staging a sharp oversold rebound. Aside from Apple, nearly everything is up more than 1% at the open.
Memory stocks in particular, including $SNDK , have been trending lower intraday for several days. Sentiment has clearly improved today, but we should still be cautious. After all, it’s Friday, and investors are mainly focused on defense.
The main reason for the decline was that OpenAI’s revenue came in at just $50 billion, far below the market’s estimate of $70 billion. Oracle, SoftBank, and AMD have huge computing-power contracts tied to OpenAI. A $20 billion revenue shortfall means the orders across the entire supply chain have to be recalculated.
I think the market is worried about whether all the money being poured into buying chips and building data centers for AI can actually be recouped. Expectations have been allowed to run too high.
Also, the earlier projection was indeed for revenue to reach $70 billion by year-end, but the market misunderstood it. Although a timely clarification helped sentiment recover, with less than three months left, reaching $70 billion will be a major challenge for OpenAI.
At the very least, revenue would need to grow by 40% to hit that target. Market expectations for AI are already too high, and concerns about an AI bubble have persisted. AI itself also burns through cash, so even the slightest tremor gets magnified out of all proportion.
Overall, I’m not too worried about the long-term direction of AI, but tonight’s recovery has been very tentative. After-hours trading could see a gap up followed by a flat session, or a gap up followed by a decline. Global risk aversion is extremely high right now, and without good news, the market has no reassurance to hold on to, making it hard to avoid a drop. #Solana计划将出块时间缩至200毫秒