📰 Digital asset funds have seen cumulative inflows of $11.1 billion since mid-July, but the pace of inflows has recently slowed. James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, explains that uncertainty is making investors hesitate, even though the fundamentals haven’t weakened.
🔥 Interestingly, two sets of figures seem to conflict: the odds of a Fed rate hike in October have fallen from 71% to 23%, yet the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen above 5.3%, while the 30-year yield has reached 5.7%—both at highs not seen in more than two decades. Expectations of a rate hike have fallen, but pressure from the bond market remains.
Honestly, if you focus only on whether the Fed will raise rates, it’s easy to miss the second half of the story. In Butterfill’s view, the bond market may matter more than the Fed. Less concern about another rate hike doesn’t automatically mean money will start flowing in faster.
💡 He also believes BTC needs fiscal factors to drive a breakout. That makes me think that interest rate expectations alone may not be enough to explain fund inflows. Still, a slowdown in inflows doesn’t necessarily mean investors have already pulled out.
🤔 If the odds of a rate hike keep falling but long-term Treasury yields refuse to come down, which signal would you trust more when deciding whether to add to your BTC position?
#比特币 #CoinShares #美联储 #BondMarket
🔥 Interestingly, two sets of figures seem to conflict: the odds of a Fed rate hike in October have fallen from 71% to 23%, yet the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen above 5.3%, while the 30-year yield has reached 5.7%—both at highs not seen in more than two decades. Expectations of a rate hike have fallen, but pressure from the bond market remains.
Honestly, if you focus only on whether the Fed will raise rates, it’s easy to miss the second half of the story. In Butterfill’s view, the bond market may matter more than the Fed. Less concern about another rate hike doesn’t automatically mean money will start flowing in faster.
💡 He also believes BTC needs fiscal factors to drive a breakout. That makes me think that interest rate expectations alone may not be enough to explain fund inflows. Still, a slowdown in inflows doesn’t necessarily mean investors have already pulled out.
🤔 If the odds of a rate hike keep falling but long-term Treasury yields refuse to come down, which signal would you trust more when deciding whether to add to your BTC position?
#比特币 #CoinShares #美联储 #BondMarket