Guys, people are constantly using data to figure out whether the Fed will raise rates. Can you really work it out?

Arthur’s answer is simple: they’re not looking at the data at all—they’re playing a game of strategy.

The data is for the market to see; the real negotiations happen behind closed doors. Anyone can look up inflation and employment figures. But the final decision—raise rates or not—is made by a few people weighing other things.

The market is most easily spooked by its own imagination: it sells off first, then when the decision comes out, it turns out everyone was overthinking it. So don’t try to guess their next move—you can’t get it right.

There’s just one takeaway: don’t go in heavy, don’t use high leverage, and definitely don’t go all-in. Spread out your positions, keep some powder dry, and wait for things to blow over.

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