Fidelity Research VP: The bear market may not be over; November is the next key window ⏳
BTC is currently around $82,600. After this rally began in August, quite a few people have started calling for the bull market to return.
Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, poured cold water on that idea today: the bear market may not be over yet.
His reasoning breaks down into three parts👇
1️⃣ The rally could mean one of two things: the start of a new uptrend, or a bear-market bounce. Rising prices don’t necessarily mean the bear market is over.
2️⃣ Timing: based on the four-year cycle, November is a key window to watch. The previous bear-market bottom came in November 2022.
3️⃣ He left room for uncertainty, too: historical cycles have never repeated precisely. BTC could fall again and make a new low in November or later.
He also pointed to some more optimistic signals:
📈 From June to mid-August, volatility first fell to a low level and then surged. The pattern resembles the late stages of previous bear markets and could indicate that sellers are running out of steam.
📈 Stablecoin transfers, RWA, and institutional participation are still growing.
Now, two numbers from today’s market:
🐳 One address on Hyperliquid has a short position of 573.759 BTC, with a notional value of around $47.42 million.
💵 Binance saw net inflows of 208 million USDT over the past 24 hours.
Some are betting heavily on a decline, while off-exchange funds are also moving in. Neither the bulls nor the bears are sitting idle.
If you’re holding a small amount of crypto, you can treat this as a timeline: there are just over three weeks until November. Don’t chase the rally with your entire portfolio, but don’t sell at the bottom just because someone says the bear market isn’t over. Buying in stages and keeping some cash on hand is more realistic than trying to call the bottom.
Do you think November will bring a second bottom, or will this rally continue? Let’s talk in the comments👇
The above is solely my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#BitcoinBreaksBelow$81,000 #以太坊升破2500美元 #BTC #MarketAnalysis
BTC is currently around $82,600. After this rally began in August, quite a few people have started calling for the bull market to return.
Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, poured cold water on that idea today: the bear market may not be over yet.
His reasoning breaks down into three parts👇
1️⃣ The rally could mean one of two things: the start of a new uptrend, or a bear-market bounce. Rising prices don’t necessarily mean the bear market is over.
2️⃣ Timing: based on the four-year cycle, November is a key window to watch. The previous bear-market bottom came in November 2022.
3️⃣ He left room for uncertainty, too: historical cycles have never repeated precisely. BTC could fall again and make a new low in November or later.
He also pointed to some more optimistic signals:
📈 From June to mid-August, volatility first fell to a low level and then surged. The pattern resembles the late stages of previous bear markets and could indicate that sellers are running out of steam.
📈 Stablecoin transfers, RWA, and institutional participation are still growing.
Now, two numbers from today’s market:
🐳 One address on Hyperliquid has a short position of 573.759 BTC, with a notional value of around $47.42 million.
💵 Binance saw net inflows of 208 million USDT over the past 24 hours.
Some are betting heavily on a decline, while off-exchange funds are also moving in. Neither the bulls nor the bears are sitting idle.
If you’re holding a small amount of crypto, you can treat this as a timeline: there are just over three weeks until November. Don’t chase the rally with your entire portfolio, but don’t sell at the bottom just because someone says the bear market isn’t over. Buying in stages and keeping some cash on hand is more realistic than trying to call the bottom.
Do you think November will bring a second bottom, or will this rally continue? Let’s talk in the comments👇
The above is solely my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#BitcoinBreaksBelow$81,000 #以太坊升破2500美元 #BTC #MarketAnalysis