Binance’s private messaging feature is a mixed bag. Hardly anyone asks about opening a commission account or linking one retroactively; most people ask for my market outlook. So here’s one reply for everyone.
After this rebound from 80,300 to above 82,000, I’m still not very optimistic.
It looks like a substantial bounce, but it’s mostly short covering. There hasn’t been a clear pickup in aggressive long positions, so a straight V-shaped recovery would be difficult.
Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $450 million yesterday. This pullback isn’t just driven by selling in the futures market— institutional money is also moving out.
A U.S. government wallet transferred a large amount of BTC to Coinbase again. We can’t say outright that it’s being sold, but having those coins hanging over the market is a potential source of pressure in itself.
There’s another notable shift: in recent months, much of BTC’s rise happened during U.S. stock market hours. Lately, it’s been the other way around, with the U.S. session becoming the main period for declines. I think that signal deserves attention.
Things are fairly active on-chain, too. A whale that had been dormant for over four years transferred 4,500 BTC in a single transaction. One transfer alone doesn’t mean they’re definitely going to sell, but at these levels, the market is sensitive to any movement of large holdings.
On the charts, 83K–84K has become a new supply zone. Without a clear influx of fresh capital in the short term, reclaiming that range won’t be easy.
Now for the macro picture: the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury auction came in at 5.618%, the highest since 2000. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.54, suggesting the market is reasonably comfortable with such a high risk-free yield.
That kind of environment is clearly unfavorable for non-yielding assets like BTC and gold.
So for now, over the next few days of the weekend, I’m not expecting a strong V-shaped recovery. I’m leaning more toward weak, choppy trading.
If the price can hold here and avoid breaking lower, that would already be a decent outcome.
That’s my take. Who agrees? ✅ Who disagrees? ❌
After this rebound from 80,300 to above 82,000, I’m still not very optimistic.
It looks like a substantial bounce, but it’s mostly short covering. There hasn’t been a clear pickup in aggressive long positions, so a straight V-shaped recovery would be difficult.
Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $450 million yesterday. This pullback isn’t just driven by selling in the futures market— institutional money is also moving out.
A U.S. government wallet transferred a large amount of BTC to Coinbase again. We can’t say outright that it’s being sold, but having those coins hanging over the market is a potential source of pressure in itself.
There’s another notable shift: in recent months, much of BTC’s rise happened during U.S. stock market hours. Lately, it’s been the other way around, with the U.S. session becoming the main period for declines. I think that signal deserves attention.
Things are fairly active on-chain, too. A whale that had been dormant for over four years transferred 4,500 BTC in a single transaction. One transfer alone doesn’t mean they’re definitely going to sell, but at these levels, the market is sensitive to any movement of large holdings.
On the charts, 83K–84K has become a new supply zone. Without a clear influx of fresh capital in the short term, reclaiming that range won’t be easy.
Now for the macro picture: the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury auction came in at 5.618%, the highest since 2000. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.54, suggesting the market is reasonably comfortable with such a high risk-free yield.
That kind of environment is clearly unfavorable for non-yielding assets like BTC and gold.
So for now, over the next few days of the weekend, I’m not expecting a strong V-shaped recovery. I’m leaning more toward weak, choppy trading.
If the price can hold here and avoid breaking lower, that would already be a decent outcome.
That’s my take. Who agrees? ✅ Who disagrees? ❌