TSM revenue rose by more than 50%, but its stock fell for three straight days
September revenue grew 54.6%, which should have been good news, but TSM’s performance in the U.S. market over the past few days has left me a little disappointed. I expect the stock may need to pull back for the next two or three trading days. Monthly revenue is already out, yet the share price has fallen for three straight sessions, and trading volume also picked up yesterday.
TSMC reported September revenue of around NT$511.86 billion yesterday, more than 50% higher than a year earlier and just 0.6% below August. That slight month-over-month decline isn’t enough to show that business is weakening. What worries me more is that the revenue report didn’t stop the stock from falling. But that doesn’t mean revenue came in below expectations—I haven’t found a reliable market consensus.
The stock closed at $485.80 on Monday, then fell to $457.99 yesterday, down about 5.7% over three consecutive days. It dropped 3.01% yesterday, with trading volume up roughly 84% from the previous day. Earlier today, it recovered to around $463 in premarket trading, but volume was limited, and it has yet to make back most of yesterday’s losses.
If it can climb back to around $472 and hold there, I’ll be more inclined to believe this pullback is nearing its end. That level is close to where it closed the day before yesterday, so getting back there would recover most of yesterday’s decline.
Revenue may be up, but gross margin might not follow suit. In July, the company forecast a third-quarter gross margin of 65% to 67%, compared with an actual 67.7% in the second quarter. The company wasn’t expecting gross margin to keep rising, but higher revenue could still increase total profit. We can’t simply say the company is making less money.
The earnings conference on October 15 at 2 p.m. will provide more details on profits and the outlook for the business. Revenue growth of more than 50% does give me confidence in the company, but after three straight days of declines, I’m in no hurry to buy the dip.
#美股 #台积电 #Semiconductors
September revenue grew 54.6%, which should have been good news, but TSM’s performance in the U.S. market over the past few days has left me a little disappointed. I expect the stock may need to pull back for the next two or three trading days. Monthly revenue is already out, yet the share price has fallen for three straight sessions, and trading volume also picked up yesterday.
TSMC reported September revenue of around NT$511.86 billion yesterday, more than 50% higher than a year earlier and just 0.6% below August. That slight month-over-month decline isn’t enough to show that business is weakening. What worries me more is that the revenue report didn’t stop the stock from falling. But that doesn’t mean revenue came in below expectations—I haven’t found a reliable market consensus.
The stock closed at $485.80 on Monday, then fell to $457.99 yesterday, down about 5.7% over three consecutive days. It dropped 3.01% yesterday, with trading volume up roughly 84% from the previous day. Earlier today, it recovered to around $463 in premarket trading, but volume was limited, and it has yet to make back most of yesterday’s losses.
If it can climb back to around $472 and hold there, I’ll be more inclined to believe this pullback is nearing its end. That level is close to where it closed the day before yesterday, so getting back there would recover most of yesterday’s decline.
Revenue may be up, but gross margin might not follow suit. In July, the company forecast a third-quarter gross margin of 65% to 67%, compared with an actual 67.7% in the second quarter. The company wasn’t expecting gross margin to keep rising, but higher revenue could still increase total profit. We can’t simply say the company is making less money.
The earnings conference on October 15 at 2 p.m. will provide more details on profits and the outlook for the business. Revenue growth of more than 50% does give me confidence in the company, but after three straight days of declines, I’m in no hurry to buy the dip.
#美股 #台积电 #Semiconductors