Panic hasn’t arrived, but the money has already run ahead.
Here’s a detail a lot of people missed.
This week, the Fear & Greed Index fell from 74 all the way to 58. BTC even broke below 81,000, yet the index is still in the greed zone. Make of that what you will.
Looking at the fund flow side, on October 7, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $485 million in a single day, the largest since June. The next day, another roughly $240 million flowed out. So-called Uptober turned straight into Red October.
Even more painful, miners: MARA transferred 996 BTC to an institutional service provider overnight, worth more than $81 million. The market basically assumes it was sold. Miners selling at this price level suggests they aren’t very optimistic about the short term either.
Of course, it’s not all bad news. A leading ETF still bought a cumulative $350 million worth of BTC over the past 20 trading days. Institutional money flowing into crypto this year is estimated at around $50 billion. The long-term money is still here.
So the current setup is actually pretty clear.
Long-term money is slowly accumulating, short-term money is pulling out fast, and retail sentiment still hasn’t truly turned fearful.
I’ve been doing this for many years, and real bottoms rarely show up when everyone still feels greedy. Usually, you have to wait until the index drops into the fear zone and the comments section is full of people cutting losses. That’s when the opportunity comes.
At this level, I’m not chasing the downside or buying the dip. I’m just watching two things: when ETFs start seeing consecutive inflows again, and when the Fear & Greed Index drops below 40. Only when both happen will I make a move.
Patience is a virtue. In crypto, this saying can save your life.
Here’s a detail a lot of people missed.
This week, the Fear & Greed Index fell from 74 all the way to 58. BTC even broke below 81,000, yet the index is still in the greed zone. Make of that what you will.
Looking at the fund flow side, on October 7, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $485 million in a single day, the largest since June. The next day, another roughly $240 million flowed out. So-called Uptober turned straight into Red October.
Even more painful, miners: MARA transferred 996 BTC to an institutional service provider overnight, worth more than $81 million. The market basically assumes it was sold. Miners selling at this price level suggests they aren’t very optimistic about the short term either.
Of course, it’s not all bad news. A leading ETF still bought a cumulative $350 million worth of BTC over the past 20 trading days. Institutional money flowing into crypto this year is estimated at around $50 billion. The long-term money is still here.
So the current setup is actually pretty clear.
Long-term money is slowly accumulating, short-term money is pulling out fast, and retail sentiment still hasn’t truly turned fearful.
I’ve been doing this for many years, and real bottoms rarely show up when everyone still feels greedy. Usually, you have to wait until the index drops into the fear zone and the comments section is full of people cutting losses. That’s when the opportunity comes.
At this level, I’m not chasing the downside or buying the dip. I’m just watching two things: when ETFs start seeing consecutive inflows again, and when the Fear & Greed Index drops below 40. Only when both happen will I make a move.
Patience is a virtue. In crypto, this saying can save your life.