More than $1.1 billion in longs got wiped out in three days. Who is this selloff really flushing out?
A lot of brothers probably got shaken awake these past two days.
BTC was sold off all the way from around 86,500, breaking straight below 81,000 and touching a low of 80,427. In just three days, long liquidations exceeded $1.17 billion, marking the harshest long flush since June. The most extreme hour alone saw over $400 million wiped out.
Prices are now back around 82,400, which makes it look like things have stabilized, but I want to talk to everyone about what’s behind this drop, because it’s really not just a crypto problem.
The pressure is all macro. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.7%, crude oil is nearing $100, and the market has started betting that the Fed may not cut in December but instead hike. In this kind of environment, no risk asset gets away untouched. U.S. AI stocks and crypto-related stocks fell along with everything else.
The direct reason for the stop in the selloff last night was Trump saying he would not move against Iran before the midterm elections, which eased some of the geopolitical panic. But yields and oil are still there, and the root problem hasn’t been solved.
My view is straightforward:
81,000 to 81,250 is the most critical support zone in this move. On-chain buy orders are stacked densely there. If it holds, it has the shape of a double bottom. Above that, the 86,500 sell wall is the first level that needs to be broken through.
If it fails to hold, then 78,000 to 79,000 needs to be watched. That is the biggest pain point for the large options expiration at the end of the month, and it’s also where many people’s idea of the bottom sits.
When the market is driven by macro factors, don’t use high leverage. One sharp wick down and you won’t even have time to react. Cut your position size first and wait for yields to give a direction. That matters more than anything else.
A lot of brothers probably got shaken awake these past two days.
BTC was sold off all the way from around 86,500, breaking straight below 81,000 and touching a low of 80,427. In just three days, long liquidations exceeded $1.17 billion, marking the harshest long flush since June. The most extreme hour alone saw over $400 million wiped out.
Prices are now back around 82,400, which makes it look like things have stabilized, but I want to talk to everyone about what’s behind this drop, because it’s really not just a crypto problem.
The pressure is all macro. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.7%, crude oil is nearing $100, and the market has started betting that the Fed may not cut in December but instead hike. In this kind of environment, no risk asset gets away untouched. U.S. AI stocks and crypto-related stocks fell along with everything else.
The direct reason for the stop in the selloff last night was Trump saying he would not move against Iran before the midterm elections, which eased some of the geopolitical panic. But yields and oil are still there, and the root problem hasn’t been solved.
My view is straightforward:
81,000 to 81,250 is the most critical support zone in this move. On-chain buy orders are stacked densely there. If it holds, it has the shape of a double bottom. Above that, the 86,500 sell wall is the first level that needs to be broken through.
If it fails to hold, then 78,000 to 79,000 needs to be watched. That is the biggest pain point for the large options expiration at the end of the month, and it’s also where many people’s idea of the bottom sits.
When the market is driven by macro factors, don’t use high leverage. One sharp wick down and you won’t even have time to react. Cut your position size first and wait for yields to give a direction. That matters more than anything else.