I. BTC: Bearish structure remains intact; $80,000 is the last line of defense
Candlestick trend:
On the 1-hour chart, the price has fluctuated downward from the interim high of $86,664, closing with several large bearish candles in a row. It bottomed at $80,344 before a slight rebound. This is a technical recovery after a sharp drop and has not changed the bearish market dominance. The 4-hour chart also maintains a bearish structure, and the candlesticks have yet to make an effective test of the Bollinger Band midline, indicating that the rebound is very weak. Short-term moving averages are bearishly aligned and trending downward, creating successive layers of resistance to the price rebound.
Key levels:
• Current price: approximately $82,500
• Key support: $80,000 (a round-number level; yesterday’s low was 80,344). A break below would open the way to 78,500–75,000
• First resistance: 82,400–82,700 (short-term resistance zone; low-volume rebounds have stalled here before being quickly pressed down by sellers)
• Strong resistance: 83,000 (a break above this level is needed to confirm that the short-term rebound is holding)
Trading recommendations:
If the rebound is rejected in the 82,400–82,800 range, consider a small short position, with 83,000 as the stop-loss level. First target: 80,500; second target: 80,000. If 80,000 breaks, follow the move and add to shorts. Do not go long.
II. ETH: Large bearish daily candle breaks down; 2,400 is the critical level
Candlestick trend:
A large bearish daily candle erased nearly two weeks of gains. The price has retraced more than 12% from the high of $2,806 and has fallen below the lower Bollinger Band (2,544), with the middle band at 2,675 acting as resistance. In terms of moving averages, EMA15 (2,636) and EMA30 (2,593) have both been broken, and the price is now testing EMA60 at 2,456.
A series of large bearish 4-hour candles have broken through all short-term moving averages. EMA15 at 2,589, EMA30 at 2,629, and EMA60 at 2,653 are all overhead and acting as resistance—a classic bearish alignment. MACD volume continues to expand below the zero line, with no sign of the green bars shrinking.
However, there is one key signal: the TD Sequential has printed a 13-count sell signal, suggesting that short-term downside momentum is technically nearing exhaustion. The risk-reward of chasing shorts is deteriorating, and a technical bounce could occur at any time.
Key levels:
• Current price: approximately $2,500
• Key support: 2,400 (a critical level that held in the early hours yesterday). If it fails, the strong support zone formed by EMA90 (2,357) and EMA120 (2,304) comes into view
• First resistance: 2,500–2,520 (short-term resistance zone)
• Strong resistance: 2,544 (the lower Bollinger Band, and a former support level that has been broken)
Trading recommendations:
If the rebound stalls in the 2,500–2,520 range, consider a small short position with a 40-point stop. Target: 2,450–2,400. If the price falls to 2,400–2,420 and shows clear signs of holding, consider a small position for a rebound, targeting 2,500. Exit immediately if 2,400 breaks.
III. BNB: Breaks below MA20; oversold but no sign of a bottom yet
Candlestick trend:
The current price is around $735, below MA20 (752.96) and MA5 (729.88). RSI has fallen to 31.4, nearing oversold territory, while the MACD histogram at -2.262 shows persistent bearish momentum. A daily close below $760 would confirm a trend reversal and could open the way for a decline toward the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. The 4-hour chart remains within a broader rising channel, but a decisive break below its lower boundary would be the first clear sign of weakening momentum.
Key levels:
• Current price: approximately $743
• First support: 717 (the lower Bollinger Band and the lower end of the 30-candle range)
• Second support: 700 (a round-number level and target if oversold conditions persist)
• Resistance: 739–745 (near the current price and around the MA5 resistance level)
• Strong resistance: 755 (below MA20; a sustained move above this level would invalidate the bearish outlook)
Trading recommendations:
If the price rebounds into the 735–742 range, consider a small short position. Take-profit 1: 717; take-profit 2: 700. Set the stop-loss above 755. RSI is already low, so keep any short position small; waiting for a rebound before entering offers a better risk-reward.
Summary: All three assets are in bearish structures, and any rebounds are technical corrections rather than trend reversals. BTC: 80,000; ETH: 2,400; BNB: 700. The main strategy is to short rebounds, use strict stop-losses, and never let losses run.
These are my personal trading notes and do not constitute investment advice.#比特币跌破8.1万美元 #比特币重复使用地址持有433万枚BTC