HTX Research: Tighter U.S. and Japanese Policies Could Increase Deleveraging Pressure on Global Risk Assets
Chloe, a researcher at HTX Research, said that global risk assets should focus more on how long U.S. interest rates will remain high, the normalization of Japanese monetary policy, and the potential withdrawal of global leveraged capital—not just whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates in October.
Citing remarks by St. Louis Fed President Musalem, she said that further policy tightening may still be needed over the next six to nine months. Although markets currently expect a pause in October and another rate hike in December, these are expectations, not policies that have taken effect.
Within this analytical framework, persistently high U.S. Treasury yields indicate that liquidity conditions have yet to improve. Going forward, the interest rate path, changes in Japanese policy, and flows of leveraged capital should be monitored to assess the deleveraging pressure facing risk assets such as U.S. stocks and Bitcoin.
Implications and points to watch: This assessment suggests that even if markets expect the Fed to pause rate hikes in October, high U.S. Treasury yields could still strain liquidity and affect U.S. stocks and crypto assets, including Bitcoin. This is a researcher's analysis, not a policy change that has already taken place.
Follow-up checks: Whether the Fed pauses rate hikes in October as markets expect; whether another rate hike occurs in December; how long high U.S. interest rates and elevated Treasury yields persist; progress in normalizing Japanese monetary policy; whether global leveraged capital sees a significant withdrawal
Source: PANews Chinese-language news flash
Source time: 2026-10-09 14:44 Beijing time
Risk warning: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Chloe, a researcher at HTX Research, said that global risk assets should focus more on how long U.S. interest rates will remain high, the normalization of Japanese monetary policy, and the potential withdrawal of global leveraged capital—not just whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates in October.
Citing remarks by St. Louis Fed President Musalem, she said that further policy tightening may still be needed over the next six to nine months. Although markets currently expect a pause in October and another rate hike in December, these are expectations, not policies that have taken effect.
Within this analytical framework, persistently high U.S. Treasury yields indicate that liquidity conditions have yet to improve. Going forward, the interest rate path, changes in Japanese policy, and flows of leveraged capital should be monitored to assess the deleveraging pressure facing risk assets such as U.S. stocks and Bitcoin.
Implications and points to watch: This assessment suggests that even if markets expect the Fed to pause rate hikes in October, high U.S. Treasury yields could still strain liquidity and affect U.S. stocks and crypto assets, including Bitcoin. This is a researcher's analysis, not a policy change that has already taken place.
Follow-up checks: Whether the Fed pauses rate hikes in October as markets expect; whether another rate hike occurs in December; how long high U.S. interest rates and elevated Treasury yields persist; progress in normalizing Japanese monetary policy; whether global leveraged capital sees a significant withdrawal
Source: PANews Chinese-language news flash
Source time: 2026-10-09 14:44 Beijing time
Risk warning: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.