# Trump sets a timeline for the Iran conflict
On October 8, Trump posted on his personal social media account that talks between Washington and Tehran were “making progress,” and that the U.S. would not strike before voters go to the polls in the November 3 midterm elections.
The naval blockade will continue, and Iran must not get its hands on nuclear weapons—both points appeared in the same statement. $BTC rebounded from its low since September 21, climbing above $82,000, while crude oil moved lower. Prediction markets put the odds of a ceasefire holding through November 15 at around 60%. Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran would respond to the U.S. proposal within days.
The calendar has changed; the outcome has not. The Pentagon was previously reported to have asked for plans for large-scale strikes to be prepared, and U.S. Central Command has received orders to complete preparations. There has been no final decision, and no date has been set. The blockade remains in place, and the risk premium has not fully faded.
Prices move with the calendar. The calendar always runs out.
On October 8, Trump posted on his personal social media account that talks between Washington and Tehran were “making progress,” and that the U.S. would not strike before voters go to the polls in the November 3 midterm elections.
The naval blockade will continue, and Iran must not get its hands on nuclear weapons—both points appeared in the same statement. $BTC rebounded from its low since September 21, climbing above $82,000, while crude oil moved lower. Prediction markets put the odds of a ceasefire holding through November 15 at around 60%. Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran would respond to the U.S. proposal within days.
The calendar has changed; the outcome has not. The Pentagon was previously reported to have asked for plans for large-scale strikes to be prepared, and U.S. Central Command has received orders to complete preparations. There has been no final decision, and no date has been set. The blockade remains in place, and the risk premium has not fully faded.
Prices move with the calendar. The calendar always runs out.