6,400,000 $BTC (~520B USD) underwater.
Thursday's dip below $81K — the lowest since Sept 21 — pushed 6.4M coins into loss, according to Glassnode. The biggest surrender print since Sept 18.
But bottom callers are too early: 13.7M BTC are still in profit. More than 2:1.
Bear-market bottoms form when the supply in profit ≈ the supply at a loss. In summer, 10.5M coins were at a loss with BTC at $60K. Nowhere near that ratio. Capitulation still has another leg to go.
Tonight's US session will decide the weekend's direction. 21:00 WIB: UMich sentiment — consensus 47.7, previous 48.1, 1-year inflation expectations 3.4%. Amid the shutdown data blackout, this is the only number left that can move markets. KC Fed's Schmid is also speaking today.
80K is the line. If it breaks, the next cushion is the 50 MA at ~77K. Reclaim 82.8K and 84–85K is back in play.
$BTC is parked at ~81.6K heading into all of this. A hot print + sticky inflation expectations = risk-off heading into a weekend with CPI (Oct 14) looming. Positioned for the downside trigger, not the bottom.
$ETH
#Bitcoin #Macro #Crypto
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6,400,000 BTC (~$520B USD) underwater.
Thursday's drop below $81K — the lowest since Sept 21 — pushed 6.4M coins into loss, according to Glassnode. The biggest surrender print since Sept 18.
But bottom callers are too early: 13.7M BTC are still in profit. More than 2:1.
Bear-market bottoms form when the supply in profit ≈ the supply at a loss. In summer, 10.5M coins were at a loss with BTC at $60K. Nowhere near that ratio. Capitulation still has another leg to go.
Tonight's US session will decide the weekend's direction. 21:00 WIB: UMich sentiment — consensus 47.7, previous 48.1, 1-year inflation expectations 3.4%. Amid the shutdown data blackout, this is the only number left that can move markets. KC Fed's Schmid is also speaking today.
80K is the line. If it breaks, the next cushion is the 50 MA at ~77K. Reclaim 82.8K and 84–85K is back in play.
BTC is parked at ~81.6K heading into all of this. A hot print + sticky inflation expectations = risk-off heading into a weekend with CPI (Oct 14) looming. I'm positioned for the downside trigger, not the bottom.
Thursday's dip below $81K — the lowest since Sept 21 — pushed 6.4M coins into loss, according to Glassnode. The biggest surrender print since Sept 18.
But bottom callers are too early: 13.7M BTC are still in profit. More than 2:1.
Bear-market bottoms form when the supply in profit ≈ the supply at a loss. In summer, 10.5M coins were at a loss with BTC at $60K. Nowhere near that ratio. Capitulation still has another leg to go.
Tonight's US session will decide the weekend's direction. 21:00 WIB: UMich sentiment — consensus 47.7, previous 48.1, 1-year inflation expectations 3.4%. Amid the shutdown data blackout, this is the only number left that can move markets. KC Fed's Schmid is also speaking today.
80K is the line. If it breaks, the next cushion is the 50 MA at ~77K. Reclaim 82.8K and 84–85K is back in play.
$BTC is parked at ~81.6K heading into all of this. A hot print + sticky inflation expectations = risk-off heading into a weekend with CPI (Oct 14) looming. Positioned for the downside trigger, not the bottom.
$ETH
#Bitcoin #Macro #Crypto
---
6,400,000 BTC (~$520B USD) underwater.
Thursday's drop below $81K — the lowest since Sept 21 — pushed 6.4M coins into loss, according to Glassnode. The biggest surrender print since Sept 18.
But bottom callers are too early: 13.7M BTC are still in profit. More than 2:1.
Bear-market bottoms form when the supply in profit ≈ the supply at a loss. In summer, 10.5M coins were at a loss with BTC at $60K. Nowhere near that ratio. Capitulation still has another leg to go.
Tonight's US session will decide the weekend's direction. 21:00 WIB: UMich sentiment — consensus 47.7, previous 48.1, 1-year inflation expectations 3.4%. Amid the shutdown data blackout, this is the only number left that can move markets. KC Fed's Schmid is also speaking today.
80K is the line. If it breaks, the next cushion is the 50 MA at ~77K. Reclaim 82.8K and 84–85K is back in play.
BTC is parked at ~81.6K heading into all of this. A hot print + sticky inflation expectations = risk-off heading into a weekend with CPI (Oct 14) looming. I'm positioned for the downside trigger, not the bottom.