Citigroup said this morning that the Fed is preparing a “dovish surprise,” with core inflation already close to 2%. It was posted at 10:49—pretty interesting timing.
Normally, rising rate-cut expectations should be a boost for risk assets. So what happened? BTC is currently around 82,200, down 0.72%; ETH is around 2,490, down 3%; BNB is around 740 and SOL around 110, both falling even harder. The whole market is getting hammered. Only 28% of coins are up, while the Fear & Greed Index is still sitting at 59, in Greed territory. That’s a bit counterintuitive—a classic case of trading the gap between expectations and reality, with a sell-off before the good news even lands.
My take: don’t rush to chase a long here. This looks more like a shakeout of weak hands. If BTC can hold above 82,000, you could try a small long, with an initial target near 85,000. But if it loses 80,000 outright, that would show the market simply doesn’t buy Citigroup’s take—in which case, I’d look for a drop toward 78,000. ETH is relatively weak, with 2,450 as its short-term line in the sand.
Put simply, the Fed’s show hasn’t even started, and the market has already digested it on its own. Citigroup is being awfully vocal about a dovish turn—could it be going long the other way on its own burner account?
Normally, rising rate-cut expectations should be a boost for risk assets. So what happened? BTC is currently around 82,200, down 0.72%; ETH is around 2,490, down 3%; BNB is around 740 and SOL around 110, both falling even harder. The whole market is getting hammered. Only 28% of coins are up, while the Fear & Greed Index is still sitting at 59, in Greed territory. That’s a bit counterintuitive—a classic case of trading the gap between expectations and reality, with a sell-off before the good news even lands.
My take: don’t rush to chase a long here. This looks more like a shakeout of weak hands. If BTC can hold above 82,000, you could try a small long, with an initial target near 85,000. But if it loses 80,000 outright, that would show the market simply doesn’t buy Citigroup’s take—in which case, I’d look for a drop toward 78,000. ETH is relatively weak, with 2,450 as its short-term line in the sand.
Put simply, the Fed’s show hasn’t even started, and the market has already digested it on its own. Citigroup is being awfully vocal about a dovish turn—could it be going long the other way on its own burner account?