Machi took a hit on this move, cutting 20,000 ETH, then added back in again around dawn
During last night’s sharp drop, Machi cut a total of 20,500 ETH, with a paper loss of $3.413 million.
Normally, after a stop-loss of this scale, a person would take a break first. But he didn’t—during the rebound in the early hours, he added to his position twice. His latest holdings are 9,825 ETH, worth about $24.33 million.
A few numbers are worth looking at carefully
The current unrealized loss is $845,000. As a share of the position, that’s not outrageous, but it’s hardly comfortable. The liquidation price is 2,430.27, leaving very little room versus the current price. If the market spikes down another wick here, the pressure would be very real. Cumulative funding costs have reached $1.344 million. Many people overlook this number, but it’s actually an invisible cost—the longer the position is held, the more obvious this erosion becomes.
My interpretation
This kind of move isn’t really about right or wrong. At its core, it’s a clash between two different trading philosophies: one is to stop out, re-evaluate, and wait for structure to confirm before re-entering; the other is to define a range, buy more as it falls, and trade time for room.
The first has higher tolerance for error; the second offers higher payoff odds, but the risk exposure is much larger. The key isn’t which one is more "smart," but whether the position size and liquidation price match your own risk tolerance.
A more honest take
When you look at someone else’s account, the easiest illusion to fall into is: "He’s adding, so he must be seeing something." But the margin for error on a large account is on a completely different level from a normal one—what is cushioning for him could be the end for you.
My own approach is more conservative right now: before adding, I first calculate whether, if this trade gets stopped out again, the overall account can still operate normally. If yes, I add. If not, I wait.
I’m still some way from the goal of being able to stop and take a breather, so the more I trade, the less I dare to confuse "being right" with "being able to hold on."
During last night’s sharp drop, Machi cut a total of 20,500 ETH, with a paper loss of $3.413 million.
Normally, after a stop-loss of this scale, a person would take a break first. But he didn’t—during the rebound in the early hours, he added to his position twice. His latest holdings are 9,825 ETH, worth about $24.33 million.
A few numbers are worth looking at carefully
The current unrealized loss is $845,000. As a share of the position, that’s not outrageous, but it’s hardly comfortable. The liquidation price is 2,430.27, leaving very little room versus the current price. If the market spikes down another wick here, the pressure would be very real. Cumulative funding costs have reached $1.344 million. Many people overlook this number, but it’s actually an invisible cost—the longer the position is held, the more obvious this erosion becomes.
My interpretation
This kind of move isn’t really about right or wrong. At its core, it’s a clash between two different trading philosophies: one is to stop out, re-evaluate, and wait for structure to confirm before re-entering; the other is to define a range, buy more as it falls, and trade time for room.
The first has higher tolerance for error; the second offers higher payoff odds, but the risk exposure is much larger. The key isn’t which one is more "smart," but whether the position size and liquidation price match your own risk tolerance.
A more honest take
When you look at someone else’s account, the easiest illusion to fall into is: "He’s adding, so he must be seeing something." But the margin for error on a large account is on a completely different level from a normal one—what is cushioning for him could be the end for you.
My own approach is more conservative right now: before adding, I first calculate whether, if this trade gets stopped out again, the overall account can still operate normally. If yes, I add. If not, I wait.
I’m still some way from the goal of being able to stop and take a breather, so the more I trade, the less I dare to confuse "being right" with "being able to hold on."