$BTC This chart—I’m still waiting for it to give me the answer.
I’ve circled two spots on the chart: the wick around 76,000–77,000 earlier, and the retest around 82,000 now.
Why I haven’t given up on this pattern yet
It did break down in the short term, but a break below doesn’t automatically invalidate the pattern. If it consolidates here, finds support, and climbs back above, the structure still holds. After the wick, it has now recovered to around the boundary line, which shows there’s support here—it’s not the kind of move where price simply breaks down and keeps going.
About yesterday’s long trade
The reasoning behind the long was actually pretty clear at the time: price had already been falling for a while, repeatedly putting in long lower wicks, and it was near support. I expected it to dip below 82,000.
Instead, it plunged straight to around 80,000.
To be honest, I found that level hard to accept. The daily chart was right at the double-top neckline, so I knew there was a risk of taking a hit and still took a shot. In the end, I did take a hit. Thankfully, I only entered with a starter position and didn’t fire all my bullets at once.
What I’m watching next
80,000 is the key level. As long as it holds, the uptrend is still intact—the current low is essentially at the upper boundary of the previous consolidation range. If that level holds, the move can continue.
But one thing to keep in mind: the daily chart is still showing bearish divergence, so we’ll most likely see more choppy trading in the short term. A straight shot upward is unlikely.
Here’s the honest truth
Yesterday’s trade wasn’t wrong in terms of direction. What I got wrong was my estimate of how much pain I could tolerate. For a trade around a neckline, you should size your position for the worst-case scenario—not based on “it should hold.”
After all these years of trading with others, I’ve noticed that more and more of my mistakes come down to one thing: treating “what I think” as “what the market will do.”
So my rule is simple now: test the waters with a starter position; if the level breaks, get out. No excuses, no adding to the position. Let the market tell us whether the trend is still intact.
Don’t navigate crypto in the dark. Want to avoid the pitfalls and build steady profits? Follow Xin’s lead!
I’ve circled two spots on the chart: the wick around 76,000–77,000 earlier, and the retest around 82,000 now.
Why I haven’t given up on this pattern yet
It did break down in the short term, but a break below doesn’t automatically invalidate the pattern. If it consolidates here, finds support, and climbs back above, the structure still holds. After the wick, it has now recovered to around the boundary line, which shows there’s support here—it’s not the kind of move where price simply breaks down and keeps going.
About yesterday’s long trade
The reasoning behind the long was actually pretty clear at the time: price had already been falling for a while, repeatedly putting in long lower wicks, and it was near support. I expected it to dip below 82,000.
Instead, it plunged straight to around 80,000.
To be honest, I found that level hard to accept. The daily chart was right at the double-top neckline, so I knew there was a risk of taking a hit and still took a shot. In the end, I did take a hit. Thankfully, I only entered with a starter position and didn’t fire all my bullets at once.
What I’m watching next
80,000 is the key level. As long as it holds, the uptrend is still intact—the current low is essentially at the upper boundary of the previous consolidation range. If that level holds, the move can continue.
But one thing to keep in mind: the daily chart is still showing bearish divergence, so we’ll most likely see more choppy trading in the short term. A straight shot upward is unlikely.
Here’s the honest truth
Yesterday’s trade wasn’t wrong in terms of direction. What I got wrong was my estimate of how much pain I could tolerate. For a trade around a neckline, you should size your position for the worst-case scenario—not based on “it should hold.”
After all these years of trading with others, I’ve noticed that more and more of my mistakes come down to one thing: treating “what I think” as “what the market will do.”
So my rule is simple now: test the waters with a starter position; if the level breaks, get out. No excuses, no adding to the position. Let the market tell us whether the trend is still intact.
Don’t navigate crypto in the dark. Want to avoid the pitfalls and build steady profits? Follow Xin’s lead!