Here are the reasons behind the crypto market crash:
In 48 hours, the market lost $200 billion in value. Two days ago, I said not to chase—and the targets were hit.
In 48 hours, the crypto market’s total value fell by more than $200 billion. Bitcoin dropped below $81,000, reaching a low of around $80,400. Ethereum lost $2,450 and neared $2,400. Leveraged longs were liquidated one after another, with more than $1.1 billion liquidated in 24 hours—including around $400 million in just one hour.
On October 7, I said: Don’t chase. BTC and ETH were going to fall, with targets around $81,000 and $2,450. Two days later, they got there as expected.
This wasn’t caused by one sudden event. It was five things piling up at once.
Tensions around Iran are escalating. Tankers were attacked, the Strait of Hormuz came under renewed pressure, and Brent crude surged above $105. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations rise with them—and risk assets take the hit first.
U.S. Treasury yields are nearing their highest levels in more than 20 years. The 10-year yield briefly topped 5.3%. With risk-free rates this high, valuations of volatile assets are the first to be marked down.
The market is worried the Fed isn’t done raising rates. It already raised rates once in September, minutes are still pending, and expectations for rate cuts are being pushed further out.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $485 million in net outflows in a single day—the biggest outflow day since June. BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $208 million leave. Institutions are cutting exposure; this isn’t retail investors scaring themselves.
Add unusual activity in U.S.-linked Bitcoin wallets and rising concerns about AI security, and risk appetite is falling across the board.
Macro forces are draining liquidity, geopolitics are lighting the fuse, ETFs are pulling away the ladder, and leverage is delivering the final blow. So this isn’t a single wick—it’s a chain reaction of liquidations.
Hitting the targets doesn’t mean we’ve hit bottom. $81,000 and $2,450 were the first cuts, not the floor. If oil doesn’t fall, yields don’t come down, and ETFs keep seeing outflows, every rebound is an opportunity to reduce exposure. Don’t rush to buy the dip before the leverage has been cleared.
Watch three things for the next leg down: oil, Treasuries, and ETFs. If those three don’t ease up, rebounds are for reducing exposure, not adding to it. I’ve written down whether to trim or wait each day in @老森笔记 . If you’re still looking to buy the dip at $80,500, first keep an eye on whether outflows have stopped. You can leave your current leverage in the comments—I’ll only say whether you should keep it, not where the bottom is. Of course, if you’re a spot investor, you can buy the dip in batches!
In 48 hours, the market lost $200 billion in value. Two days ago, I said not to chase—and the targets were hit.
In 48 hours, the crypto market’s total value fell by more than $200 billion. Bitcoin dropped below $81,000, reaching a low of around $80,400. Ethereum lost $2,450 and neared $2,400. Leveraged longs were liquidated one after another, with more than $1.1 billion liquidated in 24 hours—including around $400 million in just one hour.
On October 7, I said: Don’t chase. BTC and ETH were going to fall, with targets around $81,000 and $2,450. Two days later, they got there as expected.
This wasn’t caused by one sudden event. It was five things piling up at once.
Tensions around Iran are escalating. Tankers were attacked, the Strait of Hormuz came under renewed pressure, and Brent crude surged above $105. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations rise with them—and risk assets take the hit first.
U.S. Treasury yields are nearing their highest levels in more than 20 years. The 10-year yield briefly topped 5.3%. With risk-free rates this high, valuations of volatile assets are the first to be marked down.
The market is worried the Fed isn’t done raising rates. It already raised rates once in September, minutes are still pending, and expectations for rate cuts are being pushed further out.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $485 million in net outflows in a single day—the biggest outflow day since June. BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $208 million leave. Institutions are cutting exposure; this isn’t retail investors scaring themselves.
Add unusual activity in U.S.-linked Bitcoin wallets and rising concerns about AI security, and risk appetite is falling across the board.
Macro forces are draining liquidity, geopolitics are lighting the fuse, ETFs are pulling away the ladder, and leverage is delivering the final blow. So this isn’t a single wick—it’s a chain reaction of liquidations.
Hitting the targets doesn’t mean we’ve hit bottom. $81,000 and $2,450 were the first cuts, not the floor. If oil doesn’t fall, yields don’t come down, and ETFs keep seeing outflows, every rebound is an opportunity to reduce exposure. Don’t rush to buy the dip before the leverage has been cleared.
Watch three things for the next leg down: oil, Treasuries, and ETFs. If those three don’t ease up, rebounds are for reducing exposure, not adding to it. I’ve written down whether to trim or wait each day in @老森笔记 . If you’re still looking to buy the dip at $80,500, first keep an eye on whether outflows have stopped. You can leave your current leverage in the comments—I’ll only say whether you should keep it, not where the bottom is. Of course, if you’re a spot investor, you can buy the dip in batches!