September FOMC minutes: Most officials favor another rate hike this year, but there’s no rush in October. The minutes released on October 8 showed that all 19 officials unanimously supported the September rate hike, and most thought a further hike this year “could be appropriate.” But there was clear internal disagreement: one camp saw a rate hike as insurance for risk management, while the other based its view on the baseline outlook. Several officials noted that current rates are “only mildly restrictive.” The gap between market expectations and policy expectations has widened. The probability of an October rate hike has plunged from 70% to 19.4%, while the odds of a December hike are around 64%. Markets are betting on no move in October, followed by action in December. BTC is around 82,100–82,500, with support at 81,800 and resistance at 84,500. If you’re in a position, place a stop-loss below 81,500; if you’re on the sidelines, wait for a pullback to 81,800 and for prices to stabilize before entering. The minutes were hawkish, but there’s no rush in October—the direction will depend on CPI. What do you think? Let’s discuss in the comments.
#比特币跌破8.1万美元