October 9 Morning Recap: Don’t Guess the Direction—First Ask Yourself If You Can Handle It
In last night’s sell-off, BTC bottomed out near $80,500, ETH fell to around $2,430, and SOL dropped below $109. Nearly $1.2 billion in positions were liquidated across the market, wiping out about 190,000 traders.
Is this a pullback, or has the rebound run its course? Honestly, no one can give you a definite answer right now. The only thing we can say for sure is that the assets you wanted to buy are a little cheaper now—but cheaper doesn’t automatically mean you should buy. What matters is whether you’re ready to handle a further drop.
A few signals worth watching
ETF flows are looking weak: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant outflows recently, with about $485 million flowing out on October 7 alone. Ethereum ETFs have also recorded net outflows for several days in a row. Institutional money is pulling back in the short term, but that doesn’t mean the long-term thesis has changed. It’s more a sign that risk appetite is cooling.
Most liquidations were long positions: More than 80% of liquidations over the past 24 hours were long positions, showing that leveraged longs were flushed out en masse during the drop. After this kind of “leverage washout,” markets often enter a period of low-volatility trading.
Macroeconomic pressure remains: Treasury yields are still high, oil prices have surged, and geopolitical tensions (U.S.-Iran relations and the Middle East) are still unfolding. All of this is weighing on the valuation potential of risk assets.
A few quick thoughts on the latest headlines
The CFTC chair says the crypto industry is returning to the U.S.—regulatory clarity is a good thing in the long run, but the market is voting with its feet in the short term: prices are still falling.
The Aptos Foundation has pledged to permanently stake 210 million APT—staking doesn’t create value on its own; what matters is whether the ecosystem can take off.
Papertrade starts trading on October 10—it’s a new project, so watch from the sidelines for now. No need to rush in.
Three OpenAI safety researchers were fired and then published an open letter—this is an AI industry story. Crypto folks can take a look, but don’t read too much into it.
Let’s get practical
In markets like this, dip buyers and FOMO buyers are calling each other idiots, while short sellers and those chasing the drop are doing the same. But what really matters isn’t who’s right or wrong—it’s whether your position size lets you sleep tonight.
My strategy right now is simple: until the market structure becomes clearer, I’m not making a big bet on direction. I’m keeping enough dry powder and waiting for the market to give us an answer.
There’s still a way to go before I reach my goal of being able to slow down and take a break, so I’m getting more cautious as I go. Making money fast isn’t the hard part—staying in the game is.
In last night’s sell-off, BTC bottomed out near $80,500, ETH fell to around $2,430, and SOL dropped below $109. Nearly $1.2 billion in positions were liquidated across the market, wiping out about 190,000 traders.
Is this a pullback, or has the rebound run its course? Honestly, no one can give you a definite answer right now. The only thing we can say for sure is that the assets you wanted to buy are a little cheaper now—but cheaper doesn’t automatically mean you should buy. What matters is whether you’re ready to handle a further drop.
A few signals worth watching
ETF flows are looking weak: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant outflows recently, with about $485 million flowing out on October 7 alone. Ethereum ETFs have also recorded net outflows for several days in a row. Institutional money is pulling back in the short term, but that doesn’t mean the long-term thesis has changed. It’s more a sign that risk appetite is cooling.
Most liquidations were long positions: More than 80% of liquidations over the past 24 hours were long positions, showing that leveraged longs were flushed out en masse during the drop. After this kind of “leverage washout,” markets often enter a period of low-volatility trading.
Macroeconomic pressure remains: Treasury yields are still high, oil prices have surged, and geopolitical tensions (U.S.-Iran relations and the Middle East) are still unfolding. All of this is weighing on the valuation potential of risk assets.
A few quick thoughts on the latest headlines
The CFTC chair says the crypto industry is returning to the U.S.—regulatory clarity is a good thing in the long run, but the market is voting with its feet in the short term: prices are still falling.
The Aptos Foundation has pledged to permanently stake 210 million APT—staking doesn’t create value on its own; what matters is whether the ecosystem can take off.
Papertrade starts trading on October 10—it’s a new project, so watch from the sidelines for now. No need to rush in.
Three OpenAI safety researchers were fired and then published an open letter—this is an AI industry story. Crypto folks can take a look, but don’t read too much into it.
Let’s get practical
In markets like this, dip buyers and FOMO buyers are calling each other idiots, while short sellers and those chasing the drop are doing the same. But what really matters isn’t who’s right or wrong—it’s whether your position size lets you sleep tonight.
My strategy right now is simple: until the market structure becomes clearer, I’m not making a big bet on direction. I’m keeping enough dry powder and waiting for the market to give us an answer.
There’s still a way to go before I reach my goal of being able to slow down and take a break, so I’m getting more cautious as I go. Making money fast isn’t the hard part—staying in the game is.