$DOGE The price came to around 0.081 in the early hours today. As I said yesterday, if 0.084 breaks, it could move toward the 0.08–0.078 range. That was also the entry point I gave yesterday, with a target around 0.12.
Why is the target relatively conservative? The first rally was so sharp mainly because of hype and Musk’s one-line endorsement, which was enough to capture everyone’s attention. There weren’t many investors stuck at historical highs, and the circulating supply was light. With buyers even slightly concentrated, the price could rise in a straight line. Back then, the story was new and the train was still light.
The conditions have changed for the second rally. Musk is still part of the narrative, and a group of large investors who have reached a consensus are still on board. So this isn’t a token driven purely by retail investors hyping themselves up; there’s still buying interest from major players and liquidity to support a rally.
The problem is that every rally creates new cost bases at higher prices. The fact that it can rally doesn’t mean it can climb at the same rate as the previous cycle.
Right now, there are already plenty of people holding at a loss. The area above isn’t clear; it’s stacked with sell orders from people waiting to break even.
Whenever the price nears a previous high or a round-number level, those looking to break even, take profits, and follow the trend will all sell. That’s the harshest thing about crypto: the same story can be told again and again, but the coins held by investors don’t just disappear.
Even in a bull market, most coins only show strength for a limited time. In a more realistic market cycle, steadily capturing 3 to 5 times your investment during the main rally is already enough to make the most of the cycle.
Anything beyond that depends on having an extremely low cost basis, a very light supply, and a consensus shared by very few people—not on the idea that because it went up last time, it should go back up this time. Lowering your expectations can actually make it easier to achieve results.
$DOGE
Why is the target relatively conservative? The first rally was so sharp mainly because of hype and Musk’s one-line endorsement, which was enough to capture everyone’s attention. There weren’t many investors stuck at historical highs, and the circulating supply was light. With buyers even slightly concentrated, the price could rise in a straight line. Back then, the story was new and the train was still light.
The conditions have changed for the second rally. Musk is still part of the narrative, and a group of large investors who have reached a consensus are still on board. So this isn’t a token driven purely by retail investors hyping themselves up; there’s still buying interest from major players and liquidity to support a rally.
The problem is that every rally creates new cost bases at higher prices. The fact that it can rally doesn’t mean it can climb at the same rate as the previous cycle.
Right now, there are already plenty of people holding at a loss. The area above isn’t clear; it’s stacked with sell orders from people waiting to break even.
Whenever the price nears a previous high or a round-number level, those looking to break even, take profits, and follow the trend will all sell. That’s the harshest thing about crypto: the same story can be told again and again, but the coins held by investors don’t just disappear.
Even in a bull market, most coins only show strength for a limited time. In a more realistic market cycle, steadily capturing 3 to 5 times your investment during the main rally is already enough to make the most of the cycle.
Anything beyond that depends on having an extremely low cost basis, a very light supply, and a consensus shared by very few people—not on the idea that because it went up last time, it should go back up this time. Lowering your expectations can actually make it easier to achieve results.
$DOGE