$ETH 2481 This is a very delicate spot. I took a look at the smart money position distribution and noticed a dangerous signal. ⚠️ The nominal long/short ratio is 150%, which looks like the bulls are very strong, but take a closer look at the profit and loss:
● Longs: Positions worth 1 billion U, with unrealized losses of 14.2 million U and a profit rate of just 40%. This shows that most longs are trapped “perma-bulls.”
● Shorts: Positions worth 670 million U, with unrealized profits of 16.54 million U and a profit rate of 62%. These are the real major players. The conclusion is clear: the bears are currently in control of the market. Here’s how things could play out:
1. Short-term resistance: There will be heavy selling pressure from trapped positions in the 2515–2520 range (the average cost basis for the longs).
2. Key support: If 2450 fails to hold, it could trigger a cascade of long liquidations. Trading advice:
 Don’t go against the bears at this level. If you want to go long, wait until the price stabilizes above 2540 at the very least, and enter only after the shorts have taken profits and exited.
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