On this night, the朋友圈 (social circle) is lively again. But what I want to talk about is what happened over these three days.
Right before the National Day holiday, you could hear voices everywhere in the market—“retail investors have all run off, demand has dried up, there’s nobody to take the other side.” At the time, I dug into the data: retail investors really were leaving. Over a 30-day period, demand flipped from positive 17% to negative, and it didn’t stop.
But during the same period, the money actually didn’t leave. In September, spot ETF net inflows were 2.65 billion yuan. Blackstone’s products alone brought in 195 million yuan just on October 1. Morgan Stanley’s holdings quietly broke above 10,000 BTC, and Strategy has been buying continuously. Crypto stocks like Coinbase and Strategy are up about 5 points today.
You see it: with the same 83,000, retail is moving out while institutions are moving in. Then once a U.S. data point loosens up and a little bit of news leaks out, Bitcoin surges back overnight to 87,000. Those who exited early now have to take the bid at a higher level again—picking up the goods they left behind.
The interesting part about this business is right here: the noise of excitement always moves in the opposite direction from real money.
A couple of days ago I wrote a line, and today it’s still the same line—follow the capital, not the noise.
When everyone starts shouting “bull market” again, you should instead lower your head and check your own position—can you still hold it, can you still see clearly?
Don’t chase this single candle, and don’t panic over these couple of days. Real patience is knowing what you’re waiting for when nobody’s watching.
Right before the National Day holiday, you could hear voices everywhere in the market—“retail investors have all run off, demand has dried up, there’s nobody to take the other side.” At the time, I dug into the data: retail investors really were leaving. Over a 30-day period, demand flipped from positive 17% to negative, and it didn’t stop.
But during the same period, the money actually didn’t leave. In September, spot ETF net inflows were 2.65 billion yuan. Blackstone’s products alone brought in 195 million yuan just on October 1. Morgan Stanley’s holdings quietly broke above 10,000 BTC, and Strategy has been buying continuously. Crypto stocks like Coinbase and Strategy are up about 5 points today.
You see it: with the same 83,000, retail is moving out while institutions are moving in. Then once a U.S. data point loosens up and a little bit of news leaks out, Bitcoin surges back overnight to 87,000. Those who exited early now have to take the bid at a higher level again—picking up the goods they left behind.
The interesting part about this business is right here: the noise of excitement always moves in the opposite direction from real money.
A couple of days ago I wrote a line, and today it’s still the same line—follow the capital, not the noise.
When everyone starts shouting “bull market” again, you should instead lower your head and check your own position—can you still hold it, can you still see clearly?
Don’t chase this single candle, and don’t panic over these couple of days. Real patience is knowing what you’re waiting for when nobody’s watching.
