10.9 Chen Jie’s Morning Analysis
In the evening, focus on the preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in the US, as well as a series of dense remarks from multiple Federal Reserve officials. Official reserves remain solid (+23.02 tons); highly concerning is that ETF holdings saw an extreme, cliff-like selloff within a single day, with net outflows reaching as much as -5.7 tons. The main institutions’ intention to cash out decisively and exit is extremely clear. After a deep probe to the bottom on Thursday, an oversold rebound unfolded. The session opened in the morning around 4136, dipped to a low of 4131 and then stabilized. Afterwards, it slowly rose to touch 4150, and is currently trading near 4146. Although short-term indicators have shown some repair, price is facing heavy downward pressure from a larger-cycle dead cross above, together with the massive ETF sell pressure hitting like a weight. The intraday main tone is firmly set as: comply with the long-term bearish trend, and patiently wait for a rebound to face strong resistance at extreme levels to sell when opportunities arise.
The daily K-line moving-average system is in a bearish alignment; the daily Bollinger middle band at 4229.37 continues to diverge downward, and the lower band points to 4052.06. The MACD green histogram is deeply expanding in volume. The current rebound is only weak technical repair following a breakdown after a plunge, and it has not changed the overall downward structure.
Trading Plan
Do short positions near 4160-4170, targeting 4130-4100-4070. Set defense at 4188
#xau $XAU
In the evening, focus on the preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in the US, as well as a series of dense remarks from multiple Federal Reserve officials. Official reserves remain solid (+23.02 tons); highly concerning is that ETF holdings saw an extreme, cliff-like selloff within a single day, with net outflows reaching as much as -5.7 tons. The main institutions’ intention to cash out decisively and exit is extremely clear. After a deep probe to the bottom on Thursday, an oversold rebound unfolded. The session opened in the morning around 4136, dipped to a low of 4131 and then stabilized. Afterwards, it slowly rose to touch 4150, and is currently trading near 4146. Although short-term indicators have shown some repair, price is facing heavy downward pressure from a larger-cycle dead cross above, together with the massive ETF sell pressure hitting like a weight. The intraday main tone is firmly set as: comply with the long-term bearish trend, and patiently wait for a rebound to face strong resistance at extreme levels to sell when opportunities arise.
The daily K-line moving-average system is in a bearish alignment; the daily Bollinger middle band at 4229.37 continues to diverge downward, and the lower band points to 4052.06. The MACD green histogram is deeply expanding in volume. The current rebound is only weak technical repair following a breakdown after a plunge, and it has not changed the overall downward structure.
Trading Plan
Do short positions near 4160-4170, targeting 4130-4100-4070. Set defense at 4188
#xau $XAU