Night session contracts, recording trade by trade
For the order book, I only look at crowding/imbalance, not group chat messages.
Contracts only recognize three sets of numbers; everything else is noise.
1. BTC 81778, 24h 80394-83521, change -1.79%.
2. BTC open interest notional 7.60 billion USD, 24h -4.80%
3. Total account long/short ratio 1.87
My view: A fee rate of 0.0019% is close to zero. With a long/short ratio of 1.87, the leverage hasn’t been tilted. If it hasn’t been tilted, don’t use high leverage to force it to be.
Execution zones (based on current price ± the structure, not the old chart):
- Breakout zone: only talk about chasing after it stands above 82,432; if it doesn’t, it’s a fake breakout
- Pullback to enter: 80,797-81,287; don’t catch it if it loses the level
- Abandon zone: if the 1h closes below 80,306, this trade is not done
My position: I won’t catch the first knife. Before the downside has turned into a drop in position size, on the left side you’re catching falling knives.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDT-margined / Yahoo daily (5-day gain/loss). Missing numbers aren’t supplemented.
At the pullback level, will you place your order, or wait for the candle to close?
#BTC #合约风控 #Trading observation
Data card (same batch as the main text; what’s missing is the dash):
BTC 81,778 -1.79% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,478 -3.69% ETH/BTC 0.0303
S&P 7,765 +1.29% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 27,193 +1.20% Yahoo 5-day
USD 102 -0.04% DXY 5-day
VIX 15.41 +0.65% Yahoo
Fee rate 0.0019% Open interest 7.60B (24h -4.80) Long/short 1.8694 Binance USDT-margined
Personal opinion; the figures are from the sources stated in the main text. Not a trading instruction.
For the order book, I only look at crowding/imbalance, not group chat messages.
Contracts only recognize three sets of numbers; everything else is noise.
1. BTC 81778, 24h 80394-83521, change -1.79%.
2. BTC open interest notional 7.60 billion USD, 24h -4.80%
3. Total account long/short ratio 1.87
My view: A fee rate of 0.0019% is close to zero. With a long/short ratio of 1.87, the leverage hasn’t been tilted. If it hasn’t been tilted, don’t use high leverage to force it to be.
Execution zones (based on current price ± the structure, not the old chart):
- Breakout zone: only talk about chasing after it stands above 82,432; if it doesn’t, it’s a fake breakout
- Pullback to enter: 80,797-81,287; don’t catch it if it loses the level
- Abandon zone: if the 1h closes below 80,306, this trade is not done
My position: I won’t catch the first knife. Before the downside has turned into a drop in position size, on the left side you’re catching falling knives.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDT-margined / Yahoo daily (5-day gain/loss). Missing numbers aren’t supplemented.
At the pullback level, will you place your order, or wait for the candle to close?
#BTC #合约风控 #Trading observation
Data card (same batch as the main text; what’s missing is the dash):
BTC 81,778 -1.79% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,478 -3.69% ETH/BTC 0.0303
S&P 7,765 +1.29% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 27,193 +1.20% Yahoo 5-day
USD 102 -0.04% DXY 5-day
VIX 15.41 +0.65% Yahoo
Fee rate 0.0019% Open interest 7.60B (24h -4.80) Long/short 1.8694 Binance USDT-margined
Personal opinion; the figures are from the sources stated in the main text. Not a trading instruction.