I’ve finished reading the Fed’s September meeting minutes.
In plain terms: just two words—wait a bit 😂
Let me roughly translate it for everyone:
Most officials think there’s still likely to be one more rate hike this year, but they won’t move in October. They’re not in a hurry to stack hikes back-to-back; they want to look at the data first. In other words, they’re “gun still being held up,” but they won’t fire yet 😂
Why is that?
Because “Big Boss #2” and “Big Boss #3” (Vice Chair Jefferson and New York Fed President Williams) have already signaled in advance that they’re not in a rush to hike rates. With time to evaluate and the market buying into the message, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped from around 70% to around 20%~
So someone might ask: did today’s crypto market drop have anything to do with this “meeting minutes”?
I think there’s some relationship, but I’d say it’s only a “co-conspirator” 😂
I believe the direct spark is the spike in U.S. Treasury yields.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged intraday past 5.36%, and the 30-year rose to 5.73%—the highest levels in about 20 years. When bond yields rise, money flows from high-risk assets into the bond market. $BTC—being the most liquidity-sensitive asset—takes the hit first.
The cruelest blow is the “leveraged liquidation.”
In the past 24 hours, the crypto market saw liquidations of roughly $550 million to $690 million, and over 92% of those were long positions.
So who’s the biggest “victim” this time?
That has to be $ETH.
$ETH liquidations totaled $250 million, the highest among all coins, and 94% of that was long positions. BTC liquidations were $185 million, with long positions also making up 94%. The proportion of liquidated long positions in XRP and $SOL is also over 96%. What does this tell us?
That longs are overcrowded—everyone’s on the same side of the boat 😂
My personal take:
This “not in a rush” isn’t a dovish pivot—it’s pacing management. Because inflation is still hovering above 3%, and AI investment is pushing costs up too. The Fed can’t truly let go. If they hike continuously, they could break the economy—so they extend the interval and wait for data before “making the move.”
Also, this drop: macro is just the backdrop, while leverage is the main cause.
But liquidation isn’t necessarily all bad. After the margin flush, the floating positions get cleaned out and leverage gets cleared—this could actually give the next wave of players a chance to enter with lighter gear.
So, don’t rush to bottom-fish yet. Wait for the signals:
when trading volume shrinks, prices stop making new lows, and the long/short ratio returns to normal.
What other views do you have? Feel free to leave a comment in the comment section 🥳
#Fed meeting minutes focus on pausing rate hikes in October #比特币跌破8.4万美元
In plain terms: just two words—wait a bit 😂
Let me roughly translate it for everyone:
Most officials think there’s still likely to be one more rate hike this year, but they won’t move in October. They’re not in a hurry to stack hikes back-to-back; they want to look at the data first. In other words, they’re “gun still being held up,” but they won’t fire yet 😂
Why is that?
Because “Big Boss #2” and “Big Boss #3” (Vice Chair Jefferson and New York Fed President Williams) have already signaled in advance that they’re not in a rush to hike rates. With time to evaluate and the market buying into the message, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped from around 70% to around 20%~
So someone might ask: did today’s crypto market drop have anything to do with this “meeting minutes”?
I think there’s some relationship, but I’d say it’s only a “co-conspirator” 😂
I believe the direct spark is the spike in U.S. Treasury yields.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged intraday past 5.36%, and the 30-year rose to 5.73%—the highest levels in about 20 years. When bond yields rise, money flows from high-risk assets into the bond market. $BTC—being the most liquidity-sensitive asset—takes the hit first.
The cruelest blow is the “leveraged liquidation.”
In the past 24 hours, the crypto market saw liquidations of roughly $550 million to $690 million, and over 92% of those were long positions.
So who’s the biggest “victim” this time?
That has to be $ETH.
$ETH liquidations totaled $250 million, the highest among all coins, and 94% of that was long positions. BTC liquidations were $185 million, with long positions also making up 94%. The proportion of liquidated long positions in XRP and $SOL is also over 96%. What does this tell us?
That longs are overcrowded—everyone’s on the same side of the boat 😂
My personal take:
This “not in a rush” isn’t a dovish pivot—it’s pacing management. Because inflation is still hovering above 3%, and AI investment is pushing costs up too. The Fed can’t truly let go. If they hike continuously, they could break the economy—so they extend the interval and wait for data before “making the move.”
Also, this drop: macro is just the backdrop, while leverage is the main cause.
But liquidation isn’t necessarily all bad. After the margin flush, the floating positions get cleaned out and leverage gets cleared—this could actually give the next wave of players a chance to enter with lighter gear.
So, don’t rush to bottom-fish yet. Wait for the signals:
when trading volume shrinks, prices stop making new lows, and the long/short ratio returns to normal.
What other views do you have? Feel free to leave a comment in the comment section 🥳
#Fed meeting minutes focus on pausing rate hikes in October #比特币跌破8.4万美元
