All the reversals after waking up: 3 major things this morning, and the first one directly rewrote the market
After waking up, it was all reversals. I was still worried last night about geopolitical escalation, but this morning I can finally breathe easier; however, over at the Fed, another hawk is starting to talk. Three things—one by one.
① Iran: No fighting—for now, at least not before the election
NYT broke the news last night (quoted by First Squawk): the Pentagon had drafted a plan for a “three-day strike on Iran,” and Trump himself was still weighing it.
Trump then personally stepped in to deny it. Exact words from Truth Social: “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections” (the Nov. 3 midterm elections).
Axios added: the Pentagon really had received instructions “to prepare for a large-scale military operation against Iran,” but the date hadn’t been set. Now it has been called off by Trump himself.
How will the market move? After the news, Brent crude fell to around $103. $BTC at 00:00 pulled from 80672 to 81722 (+1.3%, Kraken hourly, Beijing time 10-09 01:00→04:00). Meanwhile, the short side ($ETH ) was liquidated around 2473, totaling $8.83 million (newsliquid real-time liquidation flow, 04:43).
Interpretation: the geopolitical risk premium is fading, and short-covering is the main fuel for this morning’s rebound. The “bulls buying in for geopolitics” from last night was essentially connected to the second half—this time, the story is flipped.
② Samsung × Coinbase: 82 million phones gain access to stablecoins
Samsung officially announced: starting in the last week of October, Samsung Wallet will directly support USDC, covering 82 million Galaxy devices in the U.S. Users can send to compatible crypto wallets without Samsung fees, and can also transfer to bank accounts in more than 60 countries—where the recipient gets local currency without even needing to install the wallet. Custody is handled by Coinbase Prime (Bastion provides the compliance pathway), and settlement runs on Solana and Sui.
Interpretation: this isn’t “just another partnership headline.” Stablecoins change from “you need to install an app” to “it’s built into your phone”—and the on-chain capital entry point has the valve opened directly. Turning points often hide in seemingly boring details that are huge in scale.
③ Fed Waller: there may be another rate hike in December
Fed Governor Waller said last night at the Istanbul Economic Forum: they need to bring inflation back to 2%; “more rate hikes are still needed,” but the pace can be flexible—there is likely to be no change at the Oct. 27–28 meeting (right in the week before the midterm election). Then another hike on Dec. 8–9.
Background: in September, rates were just raised by 25bp to 3.75%–4%. August inflation was 3.4%. The market has already priced in a December hike.
Interpretation: this is the only headwind this morning. Geopolitical cooling is short-term bleeding control; the expected rate hikes hanging over the rest of the year are the other shoe. Don’t chase emotion in the short term—read where the funds are actually coming from in the long run.
One-sentence summary: both tailwind (geopolitical cooling + adopting expansion in volume) and headwind (year-end rate hikes) are on at the same time. This morning’s rebound is powered by short-covering, not new money. Do what your position plan says—don’t go all-in because of one headline, and don’t fully exit because of one hawkish speech.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#比特币 #以太坊 #stablecoin
The above does not constitute investment advice. All numbers come from public sources and real-time data streams.
After waking up, it was all reversals. I was still worried last night about geopolitical escalation, but this morning I can finally breathe easier; however, over at the Fed, another hawk is starting to talk. Three things—one by one.
① Iran: No fighting—for now, at least not before the election
NYT broke the news last night (quoted by First Squawk): the Pentagon had drafted a plan for a “three-day strike on Iran,” and Trump himself was still weighing it.
Trump then personally stepped in to deny it. Exact words from Truth Social: “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections” (the Nov. 3 midterm elections).
Axios added: the Pentagon really had received instructions “to prepare for a large-scale military operation against Iran,” but the date hadn’t been set. Now it has been called off by Trump himself.
How will the market move? After the news, Brent crude fell to around $103. $BTC at 00:00 pulled from 80672 to 81722 (+1.3%, Kraken hourly, Beijing time 10-09 01:00→04:00). Meanwhile, the short side ($ETH ) was liquidated around 2473, totaling $8.83 million (newsliquid real-time liquidation flow, 04:43).
Interpretation: the geopolitical risk premium is fading, and short-covering is the main fuel for this morning’s rebound. The “bulls buying in for geopolitics” from last night was essentially connected to the second half—this time, the story is flipped.
② Samsung × Coinbase: 82 million phones gain access to stablecoins
Samsung officially announced: starting in the last week of October, Samsung Wallet will directly support USDC, covering 82 million Galaxy devices in the U.S. Users can send to compatible crypto wallets without Samsung fees, and can also transfer to bank accounts in more than 60 countries—where the recipient gets local currency without even needing to install the wallet. Custody is handled by Coinbase Prime (Bastion provides the compliance pathway), and settlement runs on Solana and Sui.
Interpretation: this isn’t “just another partnership headline.” Stablecoins change from “you need to install an app” to “it’s built into your phone”—and the on-chain capital entry point has the valve opened directly. Turning points often hide in seemingly boring details that are huge in scale.
③ Fed Waller: there may be another rate hike in December
Fed Governor Waller said last night at the Istanbul Economic Forum: they need to bring inflation back to 2%; “more rate hikes are still needed,” but the pace can be flexible—there is likely to be no change at the Oct. 27–28 meeting (right in the week before the midterm election). Then another hike on Dec. 8–9.
Background: in September, rates were just raised by 25bp to 3.75%–4%. August inflation was 3.4%. The market has already priced in a December hike.
Interpretation: this is the only headwind this morning. Geopolitical cooling is short-term bleeding control; the expected rate hikes hanging over the rest of the year are the other shoe. Don’t chase emotion in the short term—read where the funds are actually coming from in the long run.
One-sentence summary: both tailwind (geopolitical cooling + adopting expansion in volume) and headwind (year-end rate hikes) are on at the same time. This morning’s rebound is powered by short-covering, not new money. Do what your position plan says—don’t go all-in because of one headline, and don’t fully exit because of one hawkish speech.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#比特币 #以太坊 #stablecoin
The above does not constitute investment advice. All numbers come from public sources and real-time data streams.