The giant whale’s “first set 10 big targets”: He posted early this morning, and the angle he took is quite interesting. With a bunch of macro negatives weighing down the market, why did $BTC only pull back 5%?
His backdrop is this: the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries is approaching 5.7%, the 10-year is around 5.3%, and expectations for another rate hike within the year are heating up. Meanwhile, oil prices and inflation pressures are also rising again. According to him, when a single negative factor shows up once in the past, it’s not strange for $BTC to drop 10% or more. With these several things stacking together this time, the price only pulled back about 5%—and the $79,000 level wasn’t broken. His conclusion is: the market’s reaction to the news itself is information. With this many negatives and the price still hasn’t been clearly smashed, it suggests the current uptrend has resilience. His own standard is: as long as it doesn’t break below 79,000, he will keep holding. He also compared this move to the previous bottom around $58,000, but the second half of the original text was cut off, so I didn’t get to see the specific arguments. I’m not going to fill in the gaps for him.
Let me add a couple of points of my own. Falling less does indeed indicate that there’s stronger support and follow-through than before. This observation angle is more valuable than merely staring at the size of the drop. But pay attention to two things. First, the pullback of roughly 5% and the 79,000 line are standards he set based on his own positioning, which is personal judgment—not a market consensus—so it shouldn’t be treated directly as the market’s dividing line. Second, the macro variables he listed are still there. “Muted” negative reactions don’t mean the negatives have disappeared. I think it’s important to stay clear-headed here.
#加密货币 #Industry News
If I could make money just by relying on a single piece of news, I wouldn’t be writing this paragraph here. The above does not constitute investment advice.
His backdrop is this: the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries is approaching 5.7%, the 10-year is around 5.3%, and expectations for another rate hike within the year are heating up. Meanwhile, oil prices and inflation pressures are also rising again. According to him, when a single negative factor shows up once in the past, it’s not strange for $BTC to drop 10% or more. With these several things stacking together this time, the price only pulled back about 5%—and the $79,000 level wasn’t broken. His conclusion is: the market’s reaction to the news itself is information. With this many negatives and the price still hasn’t been clearly smashed, it suggests the current uptrend has resilience. His own standard is: as long as it doesn’t break below 79,000, he will keep holding. He also compared this move to the previous bottom around $58,000, but the second half of the original text was cut off, so I didn’t get to see the specific arguments. I’m not going to fill in the gaps for him.
Let me add a couple of points of my own. Falling less does indeed indicate that there’s stronger support and follow-through than before. This observation angle is more valuable than merely staring at the size of the drop. But pay attention to two things. First, the pullback of roughly 5% and the 79,000 line are standards he set based on his own positioning, which is personal judgment—not a market consensus—so it shouldn’t be treated directly as the market’s dividing line. Second, the macro variables he listed are still there. “Muted” negative reactions don’t mean the negatives have disappeared. I think it’s important to stay clear-headed here.
#加密货币 #Industry News
If I could make money just by relying on a single piece of news, I wouldn’t be writing this paragraph here. The above does not constitute investment advice.